Las Palmas Vs Fuenlabrada

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Las Palmas and Fuenlabrada for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.84 3.28 4.81 2.51 1.51
Estim 2.04 3.73 4.12 2.23 1.81
Value % -5.33 -3.68 3.48 5 -10.98



Basic Data and latest results


Las Palmas basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 4 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 1 1 2
At Home 5 2 0 81 7 6 5 2




Las Palmas latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
29 Oct Sociedad B A 1 0 W U Ng
24 Oct Alcorcon H 3 0 W O Ng
20 Oct Lugo A 0 2 L U Ng
16 Oct Tenerife H 2 1 W O Gg
09 Oct Almeria A 1 1 D U Gg
03 Oct Cartagena H 4 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Ponferradina H 2 1 W O Gg
20 Sep Burgos A 0 0 D U Ng



Fuenlabrada basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 3 4 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 2 2 1
At Away 1 3 2 33 2 2 1 5




Fuenlabrada latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Girona H 1 2 L O Gg
23 Oct Ibiza A 1 3 L O Gg
20 Oct Amorebieta H 0 0 D U Ng
17 Oct Ponferradina A 0 0 D U Ng
10 Oct Leganes H 2 1 W O Gg
03 Oct Malaga A 0 1 L U Ng
27 Sep Cartagena H 2 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Huesca A 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Las Palmas is 0.611 and for the Fuenlabrada is -0.415.
  • The home dynamic for the Las Palmas is 0.742 and the dynamic as a guest for the Fuenlabrada is -0.176.
  • The offensive ability for the Las Palmas is 0.586 and for the Fuenlabrada is -0.728.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Las Palmas is -0.104 and for the Fuenlabrada is -0.016.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Las Palmas 21% 34% 26% 18%
Fuenlabrada 37% 37% 18% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Las Palmas to score 1.36 goals and Fuenlabrada to score 0.7 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.07 goals in the game and the home team Las Palmas to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Las Palmas to score 1.41 goals and Fuenlabrada to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Las Palmas to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.5 0-1 3.48
1 4.83 2-3 1.97
2 3.79 4+ 4.83
3 4.12 Ov 1.5 1.4
4 7.09 Un 1.5 3.48
5 18.87 Ov 2.5 2.22
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.81
Gg 2.03 Ov 3.5 4.83
NoG 1.97 Un 3.5 1.26


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.22 3.59 3.68
2-3 goals 1.94 4.02 4.23
4+ goals 2.09 3.34 4.5
Ov 1.5 1.98 3.8 4.3
Un 1.5 2.22 3.59 3.68
Ov 2.5 1.72 7.26 3.57
Un 2.5 2.43 2.67 4.67
Ov 3.5 2.09 3.34 4.5
Un 3.5 2.04 3.85 4.01
Goal-Goal 2.53 2.62 4.48
No Goal 1.73 6.35 3.79
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.88 5.92 3.34
NG+Un 2.5 1.87 6.35 3.6



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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