Malaga Vs Sociedad B

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Malaga and Sociedad B for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.72 3.41 5.04 2.36 1.59
Estim 1.94 3.85 4.48 2.16 1.86
Value % -6.59 -3.35 2.48 3.92 -9.13



Basic Data and latest results


Malaga basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 5 3 1 5
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 1 1 2
At Home 4 2 0 78 5 1 0 6




Malaga latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Oviedo A 1 2 L O Gg
23 Oct Lugo H 1 0 W U Ng
19 Oct Huesca A 0 0 D U Ng
16 Oct Zaragoza H 1 1 D U Gg
08 Oct Valladolid A 1 1 D U Gg
03 Oct Fuenlabrada H 1 0 W U Ng
26 Sep Sp Gijon A 1 2 L O Gg
19 Sep Ponferradina A 0 4 L O Ng



Sociedad B basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 6 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 3 2 1
At Away 2 2 2 44 4 5 3 3




Sociedad B latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
29 Oct Las Palmas H 0 1 L U Ng
24 Oct Amorebieta A 2 1 W O Gg
21 Oct Almeria A 1 3 L O Gg
17 Oct Oviedo H 1 1 D U Gg
10 Oct Ponferradina H 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Alcorcon A 4 1 W O Gg
24 Sep Huesca H 0 2 L U Ng
18 Sep Zaragoza A 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Malaga is 0.206 and for the Sociedad B is -0.039.
  • The home dynamic for the Malaga is 0.618 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sociedad B is 0.158.
  • The offensive ability for the Malaga is 0.586 and for the Sociedad B is 0.279.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Malaga is 0.157 and for the Sociedad B is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Malaga 19% 34% 27% 20%
Sociedad B 39% 36% 18% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Malaga to score 1.47 goals and Sociedad B to score 0.7 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.17 goals in the game and the home team Malaga to win by 0.77 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Malaga to score 1.47 goals and Sociedad B to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Malaga to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.51 0-1 3.61
1 4.93 2-3 1.96
2 3.82 4+ 4.69
3 4.02 Ov 1.5 1.38
4 6.94 Un 1.5 3.61
5 18.18 Ov 2.5 2.16
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 1.86
Gg 2.02 Ov 3.5 4.69
NoG 1.98 Un 3.5 1.27


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.08 3.74 3.96
2-3 goals 1.85 4.12 4.6
4+ goals 1.97 3.44 4.95
Ov 1.5 1.89 3.89 4.7
Un 1.5 2.08 3.74 3.96
Ov 2.5 1.64 7.45 3.88
Un 2.5 2.28 2.72 5.13
Ov 3.5 1.97 3.44 4.95
Un 3.5 1.93 3.98 4.35
Goal-Goal 2.43 2.66 4.71
No Goal 1.62 6.84 4.25
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.82 5.98 3.53
NG+Un 2.5 1.76 6.84 3.95



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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