Mirandes Vs Lugo

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Mirandes and Lugo for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.09 3.18 3.53 2.32 1.62
Estim 2.21 3.61 3.7 2.33 1.75
Value % -2.6 -3.75 -1.3 -0.18 -4.59



Basic Data and latest results


Mirandes basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 5 5 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 3 3 2 1
At Home 2 1 4 33 7 6 6 1




Mirandes latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Zaragoza A 1 1 D U Gg
24 Oct Almeria H 1 4 L O Gg
21 Oct Girona H 1 2 L O Gg
17 Oct Ibiza A 2 0 W U Ng
09 Oct Eibar H 3 3 D O Gg
03 Oct Burgos A 0 1 L U Ng
26 Sep Leganes H 1 2 L O Gg
19 Sep Tenerife A 2 1 W O Gg



Lugo basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 5 4 0 6
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 0 3
At Away 0 4 2 22 5 6 2 4




Lugo latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Sp Gijon H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Malaga A 0 1 L U Ng
20 Oct Las Palmas H 2 0 W U Ng
17 Oct Burgos A 1 1 D U Gg
09 Oct Girona H 1 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Leganes A 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep Zaragoza H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Cartagena A 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Mirandes is -0.286 and for the Lugo is 0.179.
  • The home dynamic for the Mirandes is -0.671 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lugo is -0.321.
  • The offensive ability for the Mirandes is 0.674 and for the Lugo is 0.32.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Mirandes is -0.626 and for the Lugo is -0.049.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Mirandes 24% 35% 25% 15%
Lugo 36% 37% 19% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mirandes to score 1.3 goals and Lugo to score 0.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.2 goals in the game and the home team Mirandes to win by 0.4 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mirandes to score 1.32 goals and Lugo to score 0.99 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the home team Mirandes to win by 0.33 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 11.24 0-1 3.27
1 4.61 2-3 1.99
2 3.75 4+ 5.15
3 4.24 Ov 1.5 1.43
4 7.52 Un 1.5 3.27
5 20.41 Ov 2.5 2.33
6+ 83.33 Un 2.5 1.75
Gg 2.07 Ov 3.5 5.15
NoG 1.92 Un 3.5 1.24


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.43 3.44 3.36
2-3 goals 2.08 3.9 3.81
4+ goals 2.26 3.23 4.04
Ov 1.5 2.12 3.69 3.87
Un 1.5 2.43 3.44 3.36
Ov 2.5 1.82 7.17 3.21
Un 2.5 2.63 2.63 4.18
Ov 3.5 2.26 3.23 4.04
Un 3.5 2.2 3.71 3.63
Goal-Goal 2.68 2.56 4.24
No Goal 1.9 5.84 3.31
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.97 5.9 3.11
NG+Un 2.5 2.04 5.84 3.24



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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