Morecambe Vs Cambridge

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Morecambe and Cambridge for League One (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.24 3.38 3.19 2.06 1.79
Estim 2.31 3.57 3.48 2.26 1.79
Value % -1.35 -1.57 -2.61 -4.3 0



Basic Data and latest results


Morecambe basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 6 5 4 2
Last 3 0 1 2 11 3 3 2 1
At Home 3 2 2 52 6 4 2 5




Morecambe latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Oxford A 1 3 L O Gg
23 Oct Plymouth H 1 1 D U Gg
19 Oct Cheltenham A 1 3 L O Gg
15 Oct Burton A 2 3 L O Gg
02 Oct Wycombe A 3 4 L O Gg
28 Sep Lincoln H 2 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Accrington H 3 3 D O Gg
21 Sep Crewe A 3 1 W O Gg



Cambridge basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 4 1 39 6 5 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 1 2
At Away 1 3 2 33 6 6 4 2




Cambridge latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct AFC Wimbledon H 1 0 W U Ng
26 Oct Doncaster A 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Shrewsbury A 1 4 L O Gg
19 Oct Sheffield Weds H 1 1 D U Gg
16 Oct Ipswich H 2 2 D O Gg
02 Oct Crewe A 2 2 D O Gg
28 Sep Gillingham H 0 2 L U Ng
25 Sep Fleetwood Town H 2 2 D O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Morecambe is -0.508 and for the Cambridge is 0.048.
  • The home dynamic for the Morecambe is -0.022 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cambridge is -0.086.
  • The offensive ability for the Morecambe is 1 and for the Cambridge is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Morecambe is -0.678 and for the Cambridge is -0.421.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Morecambe 22% 40% 23% 15%
Cambridge 34% 36% 22% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Morecambe to score 1.35 goals and Cambridge to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Morecambe to score 1.31 goals and Cambridge to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.26 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.33 0-1 3.45
1 4.65 2-3 1.97
2 3.73 4+ 4.95
3 4.18 Ov 1.5 1.41
4 7.3 Un 1.5 3.45
5 19.23 Ov 2.5 2.27
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.79
Gg 1.95 Ov 3.5 4.95
NoG 2.06 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.12 3.87 3.72
2-3 goals 2.4 3.55 3.31
4+ goals 2.38 3.26 3.67
Ov 1.5 2.4 3.46 3.41
Un 1.5 2.12 3.87 3.72
Ov 2.5 2.02 7.11 2.74
Un 2.5 2.6 2.56 4.46
Ov 3.5 2.38 3.26 3.67
Un 3.5 2.29 3.66 3.45
Goal-Goal 3.08 2.51 3.62
No Goal 1.82 6.47 3.37
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.22 5.98 2.61
NG+Un 2.5 1.93 6.47 3.32



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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