Ponferradina Vs Huesca

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Ponferradina and Huesca for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.51 3.05 2.86 2.32 1.6
Estim 2.07 3.7 4.03 2.25 1.8
Value % 8.47 -5.76 -10.15 1.34 -6.94



Basic Data and latest results


Ponferradina basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 4 1 39 5 4 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 1 2
At Home 4 2 1 67 6 3 4 3




Ponferradina latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Cartagena A 1 0 W U Ng
24 Oct Oviedo H 1 2 L O Gg
21 Oct Zaragoza A 1 1 D U Gg
17 Oct Fuenlabrada H 0 0 D U Ng
10 Oct Sociedad B A 1 1 D U Gg
01 Oct Valladolid H 2 2 D O Gg
25 Sep Las Palmas A 1 2 L O Gg
19 Sep Malaga H 4 0 W O Ng



Huesca basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 4 4 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 2 1 2
At Away 2 1 3 39 5 4 4 2




Huesca latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Amorebieta H 1 1 D U Gg
24 Oct Burgos A 1 3 L O Gg
19 Oct Malaga H 0 0 D U Ng
16 Oct Girona A 3 1 W O Gg
11 Oct Zaragoza A 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Tenerife H 1 2 L O Gg
24 Sep Sociedad B A 2 0 W U Ng
19 Sep Fuenlabrada H 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Ponferradina is 0.087 and for the Huesca is -0.17.
  • The home dynamic for the Ponferradina is 0.218 and the dynamic as a guest for the Huesca is -0.05.
  • The offensive ability for the Ponferradina is 0.621 and for the Huesca is -0.184.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Ponferradina is -0.157 and for the Huesca is -0.049.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Ponferradina 22% 34% 26% 17%
Huesca 37% 37% 19% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ponferradina to score 1.14 goals and Huesca to score 1.04 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ponferradina to score 1.39 goals and Huesca to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and the home team Ponferradina to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.35 0-1 3.45
1 4.78 2-3 1.97
2 3.77 4+ 4.93
3 4.13 Ov 1.5 1.41
4 7.25 Un 1.5 3.45
5 19.23 Ov 2.5 2.25
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.8
Gg 2.04 Ov 3.5 4.93
NoG 1.96 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.27 3.58 3.58
2-3 goals 1.97 3.99 4.16
4+ goals 2.11 3.33 4.41
Ov 1.5 2.01 3.78 4.23
Un 1.5 2.27 3.58 3.58
Ov 2.5 1.73 7.3 3.5
Un 2.5 2.47 2.67 4.55
Ov 3.5 2.11 3.33 4.41
Un 3.5 2.06 3.83 3.93
Goal-Goal 2.55 2.61 4.45
No Goal 1.76 6.3 3.67
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.89 5.95 3.3
NG+Un 2.5 1.9 6.3 3.51



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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