Sp Gijon Vs Almeria

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Sp Gijon and Almeria for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.5 3.22 2.9 2.13 1.75
Estim 2.28 3.56 3.55 2.38 1.73
Value % 3.86 -2.97 -6.31 -4.93 0.66



Basic Data and latest results


Sp Gijon basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 5 5 1 5
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 1 2
At Home 5 0 1 83 6 4 4 2




Sp Gijon latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Lugo A 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Valladolid H 1 2 L O Gg
19 Oct Cartagena A 0 1 L U Ng
16 Oct Alcorcon H 1 0 W U Ng
09 Oct Oviedo A 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Amorebieta A 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep Malaga H 2 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Eibar A 2 3 L O Gg



Almeria basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 5 3 3
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 2 2 1
At Away 4 0 3 57 5 6 5 2




Almeria latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
29 Oct Leganes H 1 0 W U Ng
24 Oct Mirandes A 4 1 W O Gg
21 Oct Sociedad B H 3 1 W O Gg
15 Oct Eibar A 0 1 L U Ng
09 Oct Las Palmas H 1 1 D U Gg
04 Oct Girona A 2 1 W O Gg
24 Sep Tenerife H 3 1 W O Gg
17 Sep Alcorcon A 4 0 W O Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Sp Gijon is -0.143 and for the Almeria is 0.651.
  • The home dynamic for the Sp Gijon is 0.529 and the dynamic as a guest for the Almeria is 0.321.
  • The offensive ability for the Sp Gijon is 0.586 and for the Almeria is 0.415.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Sp Gijon is -0.626 and for the Almeria is -0.421.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Sp Gijon 26% 35% 25% 14%
Almeria 36% 37% 19% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Sp Gijon to score 1.24 goals and Almeria to score 1.11 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Sp Gijon to score 1.28 goals and Almeria to score 1 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.28 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.87 0-1 3.21
1 4.55 2-3 2.01
2 3.75 4+ 5.26
3 4.33 Ov 1.5 1.45
4 7.69 Un 1.5 3.21
5 20.83 Ov 2.5 2.38
6+ 83.33 Un 2.5 1.73
Gg 2.09 Ov 3.5 5.26
NoG 1.92 Un 3.5 1.23


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.5 3.39 3.28
2-3 goals 2.15 3.86 3.64
4+ goals 2.38 3.17 3.8
Ov 1.5 2.21 3.64 3.68
Un 1.5 2.5 3.39 3.28
Ov 2.5 1.89 7.02 3.05
Un 2.5 2.71 2.62 4.02
Ov 3.5 2.38 3.17 3.8
Un 3.5 2.27 3.67 3.49
Goal-Goal 2.78 2.53 4.09
No Goal 1.97 5.67 3.16
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.03 5.82 2.98
NG+Un 2.5 2.1 5.67 3.12



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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