West Brom Vs Hull

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between West Brom and Hull for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.41 4.55 8.18 1.86 1.97
Estim 1.67 4.2 6.1 2.1 1.91
Value % -11.04 1.83 4.17 -6.14 1.59



Basic Data and latest results


West Brom basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 4 3 4 2
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 2 3 0
At Home 5 2 0 81 6 3 4 3




West Brom latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Fulham A 0 3 L O Ng
23 Oct Bristol City H 3 0 W O Ng
20 Oct Swansea A 1 2 L O Gg
15 Oct Birmingham H 1 0 W U Ng
01 Oct Stoke A 0 1 L U Ng
28 Sep Cardiff A 4 0 W O Ng
24 Sep QPR H 2 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Preston A 1 1 D U Gg



Hull basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 3 5 1 5
Last 3 0 0 3 0 1 3 1 2
At Away 1 1 5 19 1 6 1 6




Hull latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Coventry H 0 1 L U Ng
23 Oct Luton A 0 1 L U Ng
20 Oct Peterboro H 1 2 L O Gg
16 Oct Huddersfield A 0 2 L U Ng
02 Oct Middlesbrough H 2 0 W U Ng
28 Sep Blackpool H 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Stoke A 0 2 L U Ng
18 Sep Sheffield United H 1 3 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the West Brom is 0.032 and for the Hull is -0.651.
  • The home dynamic for the West Brom is 0.698 and the dynamic as a guest for the Hull is -0.701.
  • The offensive ability for the West Brom is 0.181 and for the Hull is -1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the West Brom is 0.13 and for the Hull is -0.563.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
West Brom 14% 35% 26% 25%
Hull 44% 36% 14% 6%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) West Brom to score 2.02 goals and Hull to score 0.57 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.6 goals in the game and the home team West Brom to win by 1.45 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) West Brom to score 1.63 goals and Hull to score 0.83 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team West Brom to win by 0.8 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 16.67 0-1 3.8
1 4.93 2-3 1.93
2 3.88 4+ 4.61
3 3.83 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 6.71 Un 1.5 3.8
5 19.23 Ov 2.5 2.09
6+ 62.5 Un 2.5 1.92
Gg 2.07 Ov 3.5 4.61
NoG 1.94 Un 3.5 1.28


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.71 4.38 5.37
2-3 goals 1.64 4.15 6.74
4+ goals 1.72 4.09 5.71
Ov 1.5 1.66 4.13 6.4
Un 1.5 1.71 4.38 5.37
Ov 2.5 1.45 9.02 4.98
Un 2.5 1.94 2.82 7.66
Ov 3.5 1.72 4.09 5.71
Un 3.5 1.66 4.23 6.21
Goal-Goal 2.22 2.72 5.5
No Goal 1.36 8.58 6.78
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.65 6.77 4.08
NG+Un 2.5 1.48 8.58 5.82



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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