Ajax Vs Go Ahead Eagles

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Ajax and Go Ahead Eagles for Eredivisie (Holland).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.06 14.54 35.43 1.19 4.52
Estim 1.34 6.1 11.24 1.69 2.46
Value % -19.71 9.52 6.07 -24.86 18.53



Basic Data and latest results


Ajax basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 4 1 3 3
Last 3 2 1 0 78 2 0 1 2
At Home 5 0 1 83 5 1 5 1




Ajax latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Heracles A 0 0 D U Ng
24 Oct PSV Eindhoven H 5 0 W O Ng
16 Oct Heerenveen A 2 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Utrecht H 0 1 L U Ng
25 Sep Groningen H 3 0 W O Ng
21 Sep For Sittard A 5 0 W O Ng
18 Sep Cambuur H 9 0 W O Ng
11 Sep Zwolle A 2 0 W U Ng



Go Ahead Eagles basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 6 5 1
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 3 3 0
At Away 1 1 3 27 3 5 3 2




Go Ahead Eagles latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct For Sittard H 4 3 W O Gg
24 Oct Vitesse A 2 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Heracles H 4 2 W O Gg
02 Oct Waalwijk A 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep AZ Alkmaar A 0 5 L O Ng
22 Sep PSV Eindhoven H 1 2 L O Gg
19 Sep Zwolle H 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Cambuur A 2 5 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Ajax is 0.481 and for the Go Ahead Eagles is 0.31.
  • The home dynamic for the Ajax is 0.605 and the dynamic as a guest for the Go Ahead Eagles is -0.3.
  • The offensive ability for the Ajax is 0.118 and for the Go Ahead Eagles is 0.585.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Ajax is 0.974 and for the Go Ahead Eagles is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Ajax 9% 11% 40% 40%
Go Ahead Eagles 60% 17% 16% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ajax to score 3.95 goals and Go Ahead Eagles to score 0.25 goals.
So, they expect a total of 4.2 goals in the game and the home team Ajax to win by 3.7 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ajax to score 2.11 goals and Go Ahead Eagles to score 0.7 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.81 goals in the game and the home team Ajax to win by 1.41 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 18.87 0-1 7.41
1 12.2 2-3 1.66
2 3.69 4+ 3.85
3 3 Ov 1.5 1.16
4 7.09 Un 1.5 7.41
5 10.87 Ov 2.5 1.69
6+ 37.04 Un 2.5 2.46
Gg 2.74 Ov 3.5 3.85
NoG 1.58 Un 3.5 1.35


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.01 2.55 9
2-3 goals 1.11 31.79 15.49
4+ goals 1.94 2.86 7.43
Ov 1.5 1.27 7.85 11.68
Un 1.5 2.01 2.55 9
Ov 2.5 1.34 6.52 10.05
Un 2.5 1.34 5.64 13.53
Ov 3.5 1.94 2.86 7.43
Un 3.5 1.21 10.26 13.69
Goal-Goal 1.81 3.32 6.89
No Goal 1.16 11.96 17.61
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.71 3.8 6.53
NG+Un 2.5 1.27 11.96 12.9



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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