Almeria Vs Burgos

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Almeria and Burgos for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.52 3.95 6.8 2.07 1.8
Estim 1.75 4.08 5.49 2.18 1.85
Value % -8.65 -0.81 3.51 -2.44 -1.5



Basic Data and latest results


Almeria basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 4 2 4
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 1 1 2
At Home 5 1 0 89 6 4 3 3




Almeria latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Nov Sp Gijon A 1 0 W U Ng
29 Oct Leganes H 1 0 W U Ng
24 Oct Mirandes A 4 1 W O Gg
21 Oct Sociedad B H 3 1 W O Gg
15 Oct Eibar A 0 1 L U Ng
09 Oct Las Palmas H 1 1 D U Gg
04 Oct Girona A 2 1 W O Gg
24 Sep Tenerife H 3 1 W O Gg



Burgos basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 3 6 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 3 2 1
At Away 1 2 4 24 2 6 3 4




Burgos latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
04 Nov Zaragoza H 0 1 L U Ng
01 Nov Tenerife A 0 4 L O Ng
24 Oct Huesca H 3 1 W O Gg
21 Oct Oviedo A 3 1 W O Gg
17 Oct Lugo H 1 1 D U Gg
10 Oct Alcorcon A 0 1 L U Ng
03 Oct Mirandes H 1 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Ibiza A 0 2 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Almeria is 0.57 and for the Burgos is -0.224.
  • The home dynamic for the Almeria is 0.842 and the dynamic as a guest for the Burgos is -0.443.
  • The offensive ability for the Almeria is 0.636 and for the Burgos is -0.451.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Almeria is -0.104 and for the Burgos is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Almeria 18% 33% 26% 24%
Burgos 45% 35% 14% 6%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Almeria to score 1.78 goals and Burgos to score 0.62 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the home team Almeria to win by 1.16 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Almeria to score 1.55 goals and Burgos to score 0.82 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and the home team Almeria to win by 0.73 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.82 0-1 3.48
1 4.78 2-3 1.97
2 3.92 4+ 4.88
3 3.95 Ov 1.5 1.4
4 7.14 Un 1.5 3.48
5 20 Ov 2.5 2.18
6+ 66.67 Un 2.5 1.85
Gg 2.19 Ov 3.5 4.88
NoG 1.84 Un 3.5 1.26


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.94 3.68 4.7
2-3 goals 1.64 4.42 6.12
4+ goals 1.78 4.02 5.26
Ov 1.5 1.68 4.3 5.84
Un 1.5 1.94 3.68 4.7
Ov 2.5 1.48 8.98 4.72
Un 2.5 2.06 2.81 6.3
Ov 3.5 1.78 4.02 5.26
Un 3.5 1.74 4.12 5.52
Goal-Goal 2.24 2.75 5.3
No Goal 1.47 6.97 5.61
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.67 6.69 3.97
NG+Un 2.5 1.62 6.97 4.97



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *