Arsenal Vs Watford

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Arsenal and Watford for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.4 4.94 8.3 1.6 2.4
Estim 1.77 4.12 5.18 1.96 2.04
Value % -14.93 4.03 7.26 -11.48 7.35



Basic Data and latest results


Arsenal basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 2 0 78 5 3 3 3
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 2 1
At Home 3 1 1 67 4 4 3 2




Arsenal latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Leicester A 2 0 W U Ng
22 Oct Aston Villa H 3 1 W O Gg
18 Oct Crystal Palace H 2 2 D O Gg
02 Oct Brighton A 0 0 D U Ng
26 Sep Tottenham H 3 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Burnley A 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Norwich H 1 0 W U Ng
28 Aug Man City A 0 5 L O Ng



Watford basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 3 6 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 3 2 1
At Away 2 0 3 40 2 5 2 3




Watford latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Southampton H 0 1 L U Ng
23 Oct Everton A 5 2 W O Gg
16 Oct Liverpool H 0 5 L O Ng
02 Oct Leeds A 0 1 L U Ng
25 Sep Newcastle H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Norwich A 3 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Wolves H 0 2 L U Ng
29 Aug Tottenham A 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Arsenal is 0.667 and for the Watford is -0.25.
  • The home dynamic for the Arsenal is 0.368 and the dynamic as a guest for the Watford is -0.097.
  • The offensive ability for the Arsenal is 0.609 and for the Watford is -0.482.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Arsenal is 0.157 and for the Watford is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Arsenal 16% 33% 21% 29%
Watford 40% 36% 16% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Arsenal to score 2.34 goals and Watford to score 0.64 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.98 goals in the game and the home team Arsenal to win by 1.7 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Arsenal to score 1.63 goals and Watford to score 0.91 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.54 goals in the game and the home team Arsenal to win by 0.72 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 15.15 0-1 3.85
1 5.15 2-3 2.04
2 4.33 4+ 4.02
3 3.85 Ov 1.5 1.35
4 6.06 Un 1.5 3.85
5 16.13 Ov 2.5 1.96
6+ 45.45 Un 2.5 2.04
Gg 2 Ov 3.5 4.02
NoG 2 Un 3.5 1.33


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.94 3.94 4.33
2-3 goals 1.77 4.02 5.34
4+ goals 1.62 4.53 6.22
Ov 1.5 1.72 4.18 5.61
Un 1.5 1.94 3.94 4.33
Ov 2.5 1.46 9.25 4.8
Un 2.5 2.26 2.61 5.71
Ov 3.5 1.62 4.53 6.22
Un 3.5 1.83 3.99 4.94
Goal-Goal 2.18 2.83 5.33
No Goal 1.49 7.56 5.09
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.65 6.89 4.03
NG+Un 2.5 1.7 7.56 4.29



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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