Ascoli Vs Vicenza

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Ascoli and Vicenza for Serie B (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.28 3.2 3.41 2.05 1.84
Estim 2.09 3.94 3.75 2.03 1.97
Value % 3.99 -5.87 -2.66 0.48 -3.59



Basic Data and latest results


Ascoli basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 3 3 17 5 6 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 1 2
At Home 1 1 3 27 3 4 1 4




Ascoli latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
01 Nov Pisa A 1 1 D U Gg
28 Oct Spal H 0 1 L U Ng
23 Oct Frosinone A 1 2 L O Gg
16 Oct Lecce H 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Crotone A 2 2 D O Gg
25 Sep Brescia H 2 3 L O Gg
21 Sep Alessandria A 3 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Benevento H 0 2 L U Ng



Vicenza basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 2 6 2 4
Last 3 0 1 2 11 1 3 1 2
At Away 1 0 5 17 3 6 4 2




Vicenza latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
01 Nov Parma A 0 1 L U Ng
27 Oct Monza H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Ternana A 0 5 L O Ng
16 Oct Reggina H 0 1 L U Ng
03 Oct Pordenone A 4 2 W O Gg
26 Sep Cremonese H 0 1 L U Ng
21 Sep Spal A 2 3 L O Gg
18 Sep Pisa H 1 3 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Ascoli is -0.496 and for the Vicenza is -0.612.
  • The home dynamic for the Ascoli is -0.649 and the dynamic as a guest for the Vicenza is -0.688.
  • The offensive ability for the Ascoli is 0.545 and for the Vicenza is -0.865.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Ascoli is -1 and for the Vicenza is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Ascoli 21% 31% 30% 18%
Vicenza 38% 30% 20% 12%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ascoli to score 1.39 goals and Vicenza to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Ascoli to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ascoli to score 1.45 goals and Vicenza to score 1.07 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Ascoli to win by 0.38 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.66 0-1 3.88
1 5.59 2-3 2.02
2 4.02 4+ 4.05
3 4.07 Ov 1.5 1.35
4 6.58 Un 1.5 3.88
5 13.7 Ov 2.5 2.03
6+ 45.45 Un 2.5 1.97
Gg 2.04 Ov 3.5 4.05
NoG 1.96 Un 3.5 1.33


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.21 3.27 4.16
2-3 goals 1.81 5.44 3.78
4+ goals 2.78 2.94 3.34
Ov 1.5 2.05 4.24 3.62
Un 1.5 2.21 3.27 4.16
Ov 2.5 2 5.87 3.04
Un 2.5 2.19 2.98 4.83
Ov 3.5 2.78 2.94 3.34
Un 3.5 1.93 4.43 3.9
Goal-Goal 2.74 2.81 3.58
No Goal 1.7 6.44 3.92
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.23 4.76 2.92
NG+Un 2.5 1.79 6.44 3.96



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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