Asteras Tripolis Vs Lamia

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Asteras Tripolis and Lamia for Super League (Greece).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.79 3.36 4.67 2.49 1.52
Estim 2.38 3.69 3.25 2.07 1.93
Value % -13.85 -2.66 9.36 8.15 -13.98



Basic Data and latest results


Asteras Tripolis basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 4 4 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 1 2
At Home 1 0 2 33 1 3 1 2




Asteras Tripolis latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Giannina A 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Panathinaikos H 2 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Apollon A 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Volos NFC A 1 2 L O Gg
26 Sep Olympiakos H 0 2 L U Ng
22 Sep OFI Crete A 0 0 D U Ng
19 Sep PAOK H 0 1 L U Ng
11 Sep Panetolikos A 0 0 D U Ng



Lamia basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 3 5 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 1 2 1 2
At Away 1 1 2 33 2 3 2 2




Lamia latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Atromitos H 2 2 D O Gg
24 Oct OFI Crete A 0 0 D U Ng
18 Oct Aris H 0 1 L U Ng
03 Oct Ionikos A 2 1 W O Gg
26 Sep Panetolikos H 2 2 D O Gg
22 Sep AEK A 0 1 L U Ng
19 Sep Olympiakos H 1 2 L O Gg
12 Sep Volos NFC A 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Asteras Tripolis is 0.052 and for the Lamia is -0.181.
  • The home dynamic for the Asteras Tripolis is -0.43 and the dynamic as a guest for the Lamia is -0.156.
  • The offensive ability for the Asteras Tripolis is 0.3 and for the Lamia is -0.378.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Asteras Tripolis is -0.278 and for the Lamia is -0.482.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Asteras Tripolis 19% 45% 18% 18%
Lamia 32% 33% 24% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 1.37 goals and Lamia to score 0.7 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.08 goals in the game and the home team Asteras Tripolis to win by 0.67 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Asteras Tripolis to score 1.35 goals and Lamia to score 1.14 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 16.13 0-1 3.73
1 4.85 2-3 2.01
2 4 4+ 4.26
3 4.05 Ov 1.5 1.37
4 6.62 Un 1.5 3.73
5 15.62 Ov 2.5 2.07
6+ 50 Un 2.5 1.93
Gg 1.82 Ov 3.5 4.26
NoG 2.21 Un 3.5 1.31


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.87 4.32 4.25
2-3 goals 2.86 3.4 2.81
4+ goals 2.24 3.73 3.51
Ov 1.5 2.62 3.5 3
Un 1.5 1.87 4.32 4.25
Ov 2.5 2.17 7.65 2.45
Un 2.5 2.59 2.49 4.71
Ov 3.5 2.24 3.73 3.51
Un 3.5 2.41 3.68 3.19
Goal-Goal 3.36 2.62 3.11
No Goal 1.75 7.29 3.45
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.47 6.38 2.28
NG+Un 2.5 1.86 7.29 3.38



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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