Ath Bilbao Vs Cadiz

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Ath Bilbao and Cadiz for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.39 4.75 9.75 2.01 1.89
Estim 1.96 3.95 4.2 2.11 1.9
Value % -20.92 4.26 13.55 -2.36 -0.28



Basic Data and latest results


Ath Bilbao basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 6 5 2 4
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 3 1 2
At Home 3 1 1 67 5 3 2 3




Ath Bilbao latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Sociedad A 1 1 D U Gg
26 Oct Espanol A 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Villarreal H 2 1 W O Gg
01 Oct Alaves H 1 0 W U Ng
25 Sep Valencia A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Sep Vallecano H 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Ath Madrid A 0 0 D U Ng
11 Sep Mallorca H 2 0 W U Ng



Cadiz basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 3 3 17 3 5 2 4
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 3 1 2
At Away 1 2 2 33 4 5 3 2




Cadiz latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Mallorca H 1 1 D U Gg
26 Oct Villarreal A 3 3 D O Gg
23 Oct Alaves H 0 2 L U Ng
18 Oct Espanol A 0 2 L U Ng
02 Oct Valencia H 0 0 D U Ng
26 Sep Vallecano A 1 3 L O Gg
23 Sep Barcelona H 0 0 D U Ng
17 Sep Celta A 2 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Ath Bilbao is 0.2 and for the Cadiz is -0.552.
  • The home dynamic for the Ath Bilbao is 0.351 and the dynamic as a guest for the Cadiz is -0.198.
  • The offensive ability for the Ath Bilbao is 1 and for the Cadiz is -0.347.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Ath Bilbao is -0.626 and for the Cadiz is -0.585.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Ath Bilbao 21% 35% 21% 23%
Cadiz 42% 30% 18% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Ath Bilbao to score 1.98 goals and Cadiz to score 0.5 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Ath Bilbao to win by 1.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Ath Bilbao to score 1.47 goals and Cadiz to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Ath Bilbao to win by 0.51 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 11.63 0-1 3.39
1 4.78 2-3 2.1
2 4.31 4+ 4.39
3 4.08 Ov 1.5 1.42
4 7.04 Un 1.5 3.39
5 15.87 Ov 2.5 2.11
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 1.9
Gg 2.17 Ov 3.5 4.39
NoG 1.86 Un 3.5 1.3


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.01 3.43 4.76
2-3 goals 1.92 4.5 3.91
4+ goals 2.02 3.74 4.22
Ov 1.5 1.95 4.22 4.01
Un 1.5 2.01 3.43 4.76
Ov 2.5 1.73 7.75 3.43
Un 2.5 2.24 2.74 5.27
Ov 3.5 2.02 3.74 4.22
Un 3.5 1.95 4.02 4.2
Goal-Goal 2.62 2.76 3.91
No Goal 1.62 6.27 4.49
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.02 5.82 3.01
NG+Un 2.5 1.79 6.27 4.21



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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