Barnsley Vs Hull

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Barnsley and Hull for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.25 3.21 3.29 2.25 1.66
Estim 1.95 3.95 4.29 2.13 1.88
Value % 6.84 -5.84 -7.09 2.5 -7.05



Basic Data and latest results


Barnsley basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 0 5 17 3 6 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 3 3 3 0
At Home 2 2 4 33 5 6 3 5




Barnsley latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
03 Nov Derby H 2 1 W O Gg
30 Oct Bristol City A 1 2 L O Gg
24 Oct Sheffield United H 2 3 L O Gg
20 Oct Middlesbrough A 0 2 L U Ng
16 Oct Reading A 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Millwall H 0 1 L U Ng
29 Sep Nott’m Forest H 1 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Blackpool A 0 1 L U Ng



Hull basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 0 5 17 2 5 1 5
Last 3 0 0 3 0 0 3 0 3
At Away 1 1 6 17 1 7 1 7




Hull latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
03 Nov West Brom A 0 1 L U Ng
30 Oct Coventry H 0 1 L U Ng
23 Oct Luton A 0 1 L U Ng
20 Oct Peterboro H 1 2 L O Gg
16 Oct Huddersfield A 0 2 L U Ng
02 Oct Middlesbrough H 2 0 W U Ng
28 Sep Blackpool H 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Stoke A 0 2 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Barnsley is -0.607 and for the Hull is -0.853.
  • The home dynamic for the Barnsley is -0.491 and the dynamic as a guest for the Hull is -0.612.
  • The offensive ability for the Barnsley is -0.091 and for the Hull is -0.969.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Barnsley is -1 and for the Hull is -0.617.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Barnsley 23% 28% 27% 22%
Hull 39% 38% 12% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Barnsley to score 1.27 goals and Hull to score 0.98 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Barnsley to score 1.47 goals and Hull to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.41 goals in the game and the home team Barnsley to win by 0.53 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.87 0-1 3.45
1 5.05 2-3 2.06
2 4.17 4+ 4.52
3 4.07 Ov 1.5 1.41
4 6.94 Un 1.5 3.45
5 18.52 Ov 2.5 2.14
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 1.89
Gg 2.16 Ov 3.5 4.52
NoG 1.87 Un 3.5 1.29


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.66 3.15 3.26
2-3 goals 1.64 4.63 5.79
4+ goals 2.07 4.02 3.75
Ov 1.5 1.75 4.42 4.94
Un 1.5 2.66 3.15 3.26
Ov 2.5 1.58 8.49 4.03
Un 2.5 2.44 2.69 4.57
Ov 3.5 2.07 4.02 3.75
Un 3.5 1.91 3.94 4.49
Goal-Goal 2.19 2.89 5.08
No Goal 1.77 5.82 3.79
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.69 6.49 3.92
NG+Un 2.5 1.96 5.82 3.66



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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