Benevento Vs Frosinone

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Benevento and Frosinone for Serie B (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.1 3.33 3.38 1.93 1.89
Estim 2.45 3.42 3.33 2.39 1.72
Value % -6.8 -0.79 0.44 -9.97 5.23



Basic Data and latest results


Benevento basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 4 3 1 5
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 1 1 2
At Home 3 2 1 61 3 3 3 3




Benevento latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
01 Nov Brescia H 0 1 L U Ng
28 Oct Crotone A 2 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Cosenza H 3 0 W O Ng
17 Oct Cremonese A 1 1 D U Gg
03 Oct Perugia H 0 0 D U Ng
25 Sep Como A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Sep Cittadella H 4 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Ascoli A 2 0 W U Ng



Frosinone basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 4 5 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 3 2 1
At Away 2 3 0 60 4 2 0 5




Frosinone latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
01 Nov Crotone H 2 1 W O Gg
28 Oct Alessandria A 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Ascoli H 2 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Cosenza A 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Cittadella H 0 1 L U Ng
25 Sep Reggina A 0 0 D U Ng
20 Sep Brescia H 2 2 D O Gg
17 Sep Como A 2 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Benevento is 0.163 and for the Frosinone is 0.25.
  • The home dynamic for the Benevento is 0.193 and the dynamic as a guest for the Frosinone is 0.443.
  • The offensive ability for the Benevento is 0.155 and for the Frosinone is 0.202.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Benevento is 0.191 and for the Frosinone is -0.617.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Benevento 26% 36% 27% 12%
Frosinone 30% 44% 18% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Benevento to score 1.47 goals and Frosinone to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and the home team Benevento to win by 0.42 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Benevento to score 1.24 goals and Frosinone to score 1.05 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.82 0-1 3.34
1 4.52 2-3 1.93
2 3.55 4+ 5.49
3 4.24 Ov 1.5 1.43
4 7.81 Un 1.5 3.34
5 22.73 Ov 2.5 2.39
6+ 100 Un 2.5 1.72
Gg 1.93 Ov 3.5 5.49
NoG 2.08 Un 3.5 1.22


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.82 3.83 2.6
2-3 goals 2.25 3.3 3.95
4+ goals 2.53 3.19 3.43
Ov 1.5 2.32 3.27 3.8
Un 1.5 2.82 3.83 2.6
Ov 2.5 1.87 7.33 3.03
Un 2.5 3.14 2.47 3.61
Ov 3.5 2.53 3.19 3.43
Un 3.5 2.43 3.48 3.32
Goal-Goal 2.75 2.43 4.47
No Goal 2.19 6.15 2.62
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.92 6.35 3.12
NG+Un 2.5 2.29 6.15 2.63



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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