Betis Vs Sevilla

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Betis and Sevilla for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.9 3.32 2.54 2.12 1.78
Estim 2.22 3.72 3.56 1.99 2.01
Value % 10.56 -3.24 -11.28 3.08 -6.43



Basic Data and latest results


Betis basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 4 4 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 3 3 0
At Home 3 2 1 61 5 5 3 3




Betis latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Ath Madrid A 0 3 L O Ng
27 Oct Valencia H 4 1 W O Gg
24 Oct Vallecano H 3 2 W O Gg
18 Oct Alaves A 1 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Villarreal A 0 2 L U Ng
26 Sep Getafe H 2 0 W U Ng
23 Sep Osasuna A 3 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Espanol H 2 2 D O Gg



Sevilla basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 3 1 5
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 1 2
At Away 2 3 1 50 4 3 0 6




Sevilla latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Osasuna H 2 0 W U Ng
27 Oct Mallorca A 1 1 D U Gg
24 Oct Levante H 5 3 W O Gg
17 Oct Celta A 1 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Granada A 0 1 L U Ng
25 Sep Espanol H 2 0 W U Ng
22 Sep Valencia H 3 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Sociedad A 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Betis is 0.311 and for the Sevilla is 0.595.
  • The home dynamic for the Betis is 0.342 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sevilla is 0.224.
  • The offensive ability for the Betis is 0.155 and for the Sevilla is 0.585.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Betis is -0.304 and for the Sevilla is 0.378.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Betis 22% 34% 23% 22%
Sevilla 29% 41% 19% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Betis to score 1.13 goals and Sevilla to score 1.24 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Betis to score 1.44 goals and Sevilla to score 1.12 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Betis to win by 0.32 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 15.87 0-1 4.02
1 5.38 2-3 2.04
2 4.07 4+ 3.85
3 4.08 Ov 1.5 1.33
4 5.88 Un 1.5 4.02
5 14.93 Ov 2.5 1.98
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 2.02
Gg 1.79 Ov 3.5 3.85
NoG 2.26 Un 3.5 1.35


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.59 3.95 2.77
2-3 goals 2.2 3.56 3.78
4+ goals 1.98 3.82 4.26
Ov 1.5 2.12 3.65 3.93
Un 1.5 2.59 3.95 2.77
Ov 2.5 1.75 7.43 3.39
Un 2.5 3.06 2.46 3.75
Ov 3.5 1.98 3.82 4.26
Un 3.5 2.32 3.68 3.36
Goal-Goal 2.47 2.71 4.43
No Goal 1.97 7.02 2.85
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.86 6.18 3.33
NG+Un 2.5 2.2 7.02 2.7



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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