Birmingham Vs Reading

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Birmingham and Reading for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.84 3.56 4.4 2.12 1.74
Estim 2.01 3.88 4.08 2.05 1.95
Value % -4.6 -2.32 1.78 1.61 -6.19



Basic Data and latest results


Birmingham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 3 3 3 3
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 1 2 1
At Home 3 2 3 46 4 4 4 4




Birmingham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Nov Bristol City H 3 0 W O Ng
30 Oct Middlesbrough A 2 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Swansea H 2 1 W O Gg
20 Oct Huddersfield A 0 0 D U Ng
15 Oct West Brom A 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Nott’m Forest H 0 3 L O Ng
28 Sep QPR A 0 2 L U Ng
25 Sep Preston H 0 0 D U Ng



Reading basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 0 4 33 3 4 1 5
Last 3 0 0 3 0 0 3 0 3
At Away 2 0 6 25 4 7 4 4




Reading latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Nov Millwall A 0 1 L U Ng
30 Oct Bournemouth H 0 2 L U Ng
23 Oct Blackburn A 0 2 L U Ng
20 Oct Blackpool H 2 3 L O Gg
16 Oct Barnsley H 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Cardiff A 1 0 W U Ng
29 Sep Derby A 0 1 L U Ng
25 Sep Middlesbrough H 1 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Birmingham is 0.274 and for the Reading is -0.509.
  • The home dynamic for the Birmingham is -0.456 and the dynamic as a guest for the Reading is -0.35.
  • The offensive ability for the Birmingham is -0.091 and for the Reading is -0.554.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Birmingham is 0.278 and for the Reading is -0.202.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Birmingham 20% 32% 29% 19%
Reading 36% 35% 20% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Birmingham to score 1.53 goals and Reading to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and the home team Birmingham to win by 0.71 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Birmingham to score 1.47 goals and Reading to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.49 goals in the game and the home team Birmingham to win by 0.45 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.7 0-1 3.88
1 5.41 2-3 1.97
2 3.92 4+ 4.26
3 3.97 Ov 1.5 1.35
4 6.54 Un 1.5 3.88
5 15.62 Ov 2.5 2.05
6+ 55.56 Un 2.5 1.95
Gg 1.96 Ov 3.5 4.26
NoG 2.04 Un 3.5 1.31


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.22 3.53 3.74
2-3 goals 1.84 4.57 4.23
4+ goals 2.24 3.13 4.27
Ov 1.5 1.95 3.99 4.24
Un 1.5 2.22 3.53 3.74
Ov 2.5 1.76 6.49 3.58
Un 2.5 2.32 2.79 4.75
Ov 3.5 2.24 3.13 4.27
Un 3.5 1.95 4.16 4.05
Goal-Goal 2.48 2.74 4.31
No Goal 1.68 6.73 3.9
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.94 5.31 3.37
NG+Un 2.5 1.82 6.73 3.72



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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