Blackburn Vs Sheffield United

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Blackburn and Sheffield United for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.9 3.33 2.47 1.9 1.95
Estim 2.34 3.69 3.31 1.96 2.04
Value % 8.25 -2.93 -10.27 -1.61 -2.26



Basic Data and latest results


Blackburn basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 4 5 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 2 1
At Home 4 2 2 58 7 6 6 2




Blackburn latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
03 Nov Fulham H 0 7 L O Ng
30 Oct Derby A 2 1 W O Gg
23 Oct Reading H 2 0 W U Ng
19 Oct QPR A 0 1 L U Ng
16 Oct Coventry H 2 2 D O Gg
02 Oct Blackpool A 1 2 L O Gg
28 Sep Huddersfield A 2 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Cardiff H 5 1 W O Gg



Sheffield United basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 5 6 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 1 2
At Away 2 3 3 38 4 6 4 4




Sheffield United latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Nov Nott’m Forest A 1 1 D U Gg
30 Oct Blackpool H 0 1 L U Ng
24 Oct Barnsley A 3 2 W O Gg
19 Oct Millwall H 1 2 L O Gg
16 Oct Stoke H 2 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Bournemouth A 1 2 L O Gg
28 Sep Middlesbrough A 0 2 L U Ng
25 Sep Derby H 1 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Blackburn is -0.133 and for the Sheffield United is -0.198.
  • The home dynamic for the Blackburn is 0.167 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sheffield United is -0.072.
  • The offensive ability for the Blackburn is 0.118 and for the Sheffield United is 0.482.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Blackburn is -0.591 and for the Sheffield United is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Blackburn 22% 32% 32% 14%
Sheffield United 30% 33% 27% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.21 goals and Sheffield United to score 1.36 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Blackburn to score 1.39 goals and Sheffield United to score 1.17 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.22 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 15.62 0-1 4.33
1 5.99 2-3 1.94
2 3.85 4+ 3.98
3 3.91 Ov 1.5 1.3
4 6.02 Un 1.5 4.33
5 14.08 Ov 2.5 1.97
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 2.04
Gg 1.82 Ov 3.5 3.98
NoG 2.22 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.38 3.61 3.3
2-3 goals 2.12 4.91 3.07
4+ goals 2.89 2.49 3.98
Ov 1.5 2.32 3.72 3.32
Un 1.5 2.38 3.61 3.3
Ov 2.5 2.17 5.02 2.95
Un 2.5 2.54 2.91 3.81
Ov 3.5 2.89 2.49 3.98
Un 3.5 2.2 4.42 3.14
Goal-Goal 2.87 2.66 3.63
No Goal 1.91 7.03 3
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.32 4.39 2.93
NG+Un 2.5 2 7.03 2.99



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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