Boavista Vs Famalicao

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Boavista and Famalicao for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.52 3.23 2.15 2.18 1.71
Estim 2.4 3.65 3.24 2.39 1.72
Value % 13.26 -3.56 -15.65 -4.03 -0.34



Basic Data and latest results


Boavista basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 4 2 22 5 5 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 2 2 1
At Home 2 3 0 60 4 2 1 4




Boavista latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Porto A 1 4 L O Gg
25 Oct Belenenses H 0 0 D U Ng
03 Oct Sp Braga A 2 2 D O Gg
27 Sep Estoril H 1 1 D U Gg
20 Sep Benfica A 1 3 L O Gg
12 Sep Portimonense H 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Vizela A 1 1 D U Gg
23 Aug Santa Clara H 2 0 W U Ng



Famalicao basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 5 4 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 1 2
At Away 1 1 3 27 4 4 3 2




Famalicao latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Vizela H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Santa Clara A 2 0 W U Ng
01 Oct Guimaraes H 1 2 L O Gg
25 Sep Tondela A 2 3 L O Gg
18 Sep Maritimo H 0 0 D U Ng
12 Sep Moreirense A 2 2 D O Gg
28 Aug Sp Lisbon H 1 1 D U Gg
20 Aug Arouca A 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Boavista is -0.348 and for the Famalicao is -0.181.
  • The home dynamic for the Boavista is 0.263 and the dynamic as a guest for the Famalicao is -0.316.
  • The offensive ability for the Boavista is 0.545 and for the Famalicao is 0.585.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Boavista is -0.565 and for the Famalicao is -0.067.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Boavista 29% 35% 21% 15%
Famalicao 40% 27% 25% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Boavista to score 0.96 goals and Famalicao to score 1.35 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.31 goals in the game and the guest team Famalicao to win by 0.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Boavista to score 1.22 goals and Famalicao to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.24 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 8.77 0-1 3.02
1 4.61 2-3 2.09
2 4 4+ 5.26
3 4.39 Ov 1.5 1.5
4 8.2 Un 1.5 3.02
5 18.18 Ov 2.5 2.39
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.72
Gg 2.33 Ov 3.5 5.26
NoG 1.75 Un 3.5 1.24


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.36 2.9 4.3
2-3 goals 2.4 5.03 2.6
4+ goals 2.41 2.92 4.13
Ov 1.5 2.4 4.18 2.9
Un 1.5 2.36 2.9 4.3
Ov 2.5 2.14 6.43 2.65
Un 2.5 2.61 2.78 3.9
Ov 3.5 2.41 2.92 4.13
Un 3.5 2.39 3.87 3.1
Goal-Goal 3.18 2.68 3.2
No Goal 2.01 5 3.29
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.47 5.14 2.49
NG+Un 2.5 2.18 5 3.26



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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