Bochum Vs Hoffenheim

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Bochum and Hoffenheim for Bundesliga (Germany).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.68 3.75 1.94 1.63 2.32
Estim 2.39 3.75 3.18 1.9 2.11
Value % 14.67 0 -20.1 -8.72 4.29



Basic Data and latest results


Bochum basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 3 3 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 1 1 2
At Home 2 1 1 58 3 1 1 3




Bochum latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct M’gladbach A 1 2 L O Gg
24 Oct Ein Frankfurt H 2 0 W U Ng
16 Oct Greuther Furth A 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct RB Leipzig A 0 3 L O Ng
26 Sep Stuttgart H 0 0 D U Ng
18 Sep Bayern Munich A 0 7 L O Ng
12 Sep Hertha H 1 3 L O Gg
28 Aug FC Koln A 1 2 L O Gg



Hoffenheim basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 4 3 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 1 2 1
At Away 1 1 3 27 3 3 4 1




Hoffenheim latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
29 Oct Hertha H 2 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Bayern Munich A 0 4 L O Ng
15 Oct FC Koln H 5 0 W O Ng
02 Oct Stuttgart A 1 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Wolfsburg H 3 1 W O Gg
18 Sep Bielefeld A 0 0 D U Ng
11 Sep Mainz H 0 2 L U Ng
27 Aug Dortmund A 2 3 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Bochum is -0.133 and for the Hoffenheim is 0.19.
  • The home dynamic for the Bochum is 0.14 and the dynamic as a guest for the Hoffenheim is -0.451.
  • The offensive ability for the Bochum is -0.091 and for the Hoffenheim is 0.098.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Bochum is 0.191 and for the Hoffenheim is 0.42.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Bochum 21% 32% 31% 15%
Hoffenheim 27% 38% 21% 14%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bochum to score 1.12 goals and Hoffenheim to score 1.8 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.92 goals in the game and the guest team Hoffenheim to win by 0.68 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bochum to score 1.41 goals and Hoffenheim to score 1.23 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.18 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 17.54 0-1 4.46
1 5.99 2-3 1.97
2 4 4+ 3.72
3 3.89 Ov 1.5 1.29
4 5.88 Un 1.5 4.46
5 12.99 Ov 2.5 1.9
6+ 45.45 Un 2.5 2.11
Gg 1.73 Ov 3.5 3.72
NoG 2.36 Un 3.5 1.37


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.57 3.93 2.8
2-3 goals 2.09 4.16 3.57
4+ goals 3.02 3.06 2.92
Ov 1.5 2.34 3.7 3.32
Un 1.5 2.57 3.93 2.8
Ov 2.5 2.12 5.98 2.77
Un 2.5 2.77 2.65 3.82
Ov 3.5 3.02 3.06 2.92
Un 3.5 2.22 4.08 3.29
Goal-Goal 2.79 2.75 3.61
No Goal 2 7.42 2.75
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.2 5.17 2.84
NG+Un 2.5 2.06 7.42 2.84



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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