Bordeaux Vs Paris SG

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Bordeaux and Paris SG for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 8.74 5.68 1.33 1.47 2.72
Estim 2.56 3.72 2.94 2.36 1.73
Value % 27.62 9.28 -41.17 -25.65 21.04



Basic Data and latest results


Bordeaux basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 4 1 39 5 6 3 3
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 3 1 2
At Home 1 3 2 33 5 6 2 4




Bordeaux latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Reims H 3 2 W O Gg
24 Oct Lorient A 1 1 D U Gg
17 Oct Nantes H 1 1 D U Gg
03 Oct Monaco A 0 3 L O Ng
26 Sep Rennes H 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Montpellier A 3 3 D O Gg
18 Sep St Etienne A 2 1 W O Gg
12 Sep Lens H 2 3 L O Gg



Paris SG basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 4 4 3 3
Last 3 2 1 0 78 2 2 2 1
At Away 4 1 1 72 4 4 3 3




Paris SG latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
29 Oct Lille H 2 1 W O Gg
24 Oct Marseille A 0 0 D U Ng
15 Oct Angers H 2 1 W O Gg
03 Oct Rennes A 0 2 L U Ng
25 Sep Montpellier H 2 0 W U Ng
22 Sep Metz A 2 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Lyon H 2 1 W O Gg
11 Sep Clermont H 4 0 W O Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Bordeaux is 0.037 and for the Paris SG is 0.569.
  • The home dynamic for the Bordeaux is -0.254 and the dynamic as a guest for the Paris SG is 0.544.
  • The offensive ability for the Bordeaux is 0.609 and for the Paris SG is 0.036.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Bordeaux is -1 and for the Paris SG is -0.067.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Bordeaux 31% 30% 30% 9%
Paris SG 35% 35% 13% 17%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bordeaux to score 0.63 goals and Paris SG to score 2.61 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.24 goals in the game and the guest team Paris SG to win by 1.98 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bordeaux to score 1.17 goals and Paris SG to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.06 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 9.09 0-1 3.07
1 4.63 2-3 2.09
2 3.98 4+ 5.05
3 4.41 Ov 1.5 1.48
4 8.26 Un 1.5 3.07
5 16.13 Ov 2.5 2.35
6+ 66.67 Un 2.5 1.73
Gg 2.24 Ov 3.5 5.05
NoG 1.8 Un 3.5 1.24


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.05 2.96 2.99
2-3 goals 1.98 4.51 3.65
4+ goals 4.5 3.74 1.96
Ov 1.5 2.37 4.25 2.91
Un 1.5 3.05 2.96 2.99
Ov 2.5 2.36 8.02 2.21
Un 2.5 2.72 2.67 3.87
Ov 3.5 4.5 3.74 1.96
Un 3.5 2.31 3.72 3.35
Goal-Goal 3.02 2.81 3.19
No Goal 2.27 5.05 2.76
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.3 6.43 2.44
NG+Un 2.5 2.22 5.05 3.16



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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