Bournemouth Vs Swansea

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Bournemouth and Swansea for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.77 3.46 4.83 1.99 1.84
Estim 1.9 3.72 4.85 2.07 1.94
Value % -3.87 -2.02 -0.09 -1.94 -2.8



Basic Data and latest results


Bournemouth basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 5 0 1 83 6 2 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 1 2 1
At Home 5 2 1 71 8 6 8 0




Bournemouth latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
03 Nov Preston H 1 2 L O Gg
30 Oct Reading A 2 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Huddersfield H 3 0 W O Ng
19 Oct Stoke A 1 0 W U Ng
16 Oct Bristol City A 2 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Sheffield United H 2 1 W O Gg
29 Sep Peterboro A 0 0 D U Ng
25 Sep Luton H 2 1 W O Gg



Swansea basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 3 5 1
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 3 0
At Away 2 2 4 33 7 6 6 2




Swansea latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Nov Coventry A 2 1 W O Gg
30 Oct Peterboro H 3 0 W O Ng
23 Oct Birmingham A 1 2 L O Gg
20 Oct West Brom H 2 1 W O Gg
17 Oct Cardiff H 3 0 W O Ng
02 Oct Derby A 0 0 D U Ng
29 Sep Fulham A 1 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Huddersfield H 1 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Bournemouth is 0.607 and for the Swansea is 0.595.
  • The home dynamic for the Bournemouth is 0.5 and the dynamic as a guest for the Swansea is -0.409.
  • The offensive ability for the Bournemouth is 1 and for the Swansea is 0.617.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Bournemouth is 0.565 and for the Swansea is 0.316.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Bournemouth 16% 35% 29% 20%
Swansea 33% 45% 15% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Bournemouth to score 1.65 goals and Swansea to score 0.82 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and the home team Bournemouth to win by 0.83 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Bournemouth to score 1.53 goals and Swansea to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Bournemouth to win by 0.56 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 19.61 0-1 4.22
1 5.38 2-3 1.85
2 3.58 4+ 4.5
3 3.83 Ov 1.5 1.31
4 6.33 Un 1.5 4.22
5 20 Ov 2.5 2.07
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 1.94
Gg 1.76 Ov 3.5 4.5
NoG 2.31 Un 3.5 1.29


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.06 4.65 3.34
2-3 goals 1.84 3.4 6.14
4+ goals 1.88 3.83 4.83
Ov 1.5 1.85 3.51 5.69
Un 1.5 2.06 4.65 3.34
Ov 2.5 1.53 8.33 4.39
Un 2.5 2.45 2.46 5.43
Ov 3.5 1.88 3.83 4.83
Un 3.5 1.9 3.7 4.89
Goal-Goal 2.26 2.61 5.73
No Goal 1.57 8.47 4.08
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.63 7.03 4.12
NG+Un 2.5 1.69 8.47 3.76



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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