Brescia Vs Pordenone

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Brescia and Pordenone for Serie B (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.58 3.92 5.43 1.74 2.1
Estim 1.85 4.22 4.5 1.97 2.03
Value % -9.24 -1.81 3.81 -6.71 1.64



Basic Data and latest results


Brescia basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 4 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 0 3
At Home 2 2 1 53 5 4 3 2




Brescia latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
01 Nov Benevento A 1 0 W U Ng
28 Oct Lecce H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Cremonese H 1 0 W U Ng
16 Oct Perugia A 0 1 L U Ng
03 Oct Como H 2 4 L O Gg
25 Sep Ascoli A 3 2 W O Gg
20 Sep Frosinone A 2 2 D O Gg
17 Sep Crotone H 2 2 D O Gg



Pordenone basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 2 4 11 5 6 4 2
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 3 1 2
At Away 0 1 4 7 2 5 2 3




Pordenone latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
01 Nov Cremonese H 2 2 D O Gg
28 Oct Como A 0 1 L U Ng
24 Oct Pisa A 1 1 D U Gg
16 Oct Ternana H 1 3 L O Gg
03 Oct Vicenza H 2 4 L O Gg
25 Sep Monza A 1 3 L O Gg
21 Sep Reggina H 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep Cittadella A 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Brescia is 0.2 and for the Pordenone is -0.741.
  • The home dynamic for the Brescia is 0.07 and the dynamic as a guest for the Pordenone is -0.806.
  • The offensive ability for the Brescia is 0.609 and for the Pordenone is 0.482.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Brescia is -0.13 and for the Pordenone is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Brescia 17% 30% 29% 23%
Pordenone 44% 26% 20% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Brescia to score 1.94 goals and Pordenone to score 0.8 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.74 goals in the game and the home team Brescia to win by 1.14 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Brescia to score 1.58 goals and Pordenone to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.56 goals in the game and the home team Brescia to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.16 0-1 3.94
1 5.62 2-3 2.02
2 4.18 4+ 3.97
3 3.92 Ov 1.5 1.34
4 6.67 Un 1.5 3.94
5 12.99 Ov 2.5 1.97
6+ 40 Un 2.5 2.03
Gg 2.15 Ov 3.5 3.97
NoG 1.87 Un 3.5 1.34


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.91 3.34 5.64
2-3 goals 1.63 6.25 4.41
4+ goals 2.36 3.11 3.94
Ov 1.5 1.82 4.66 4.24
Un 1.5 1.91 3.34 5.64
Ov 2.5 1.79 6.26 3.57
Un 2.5 1.9 3.18 6.24
Ov 3.5 2.36 3.11 3.94
Un 3.5 1.72 4.83 4.76
Goal-Goal 2.55 2.91 3.78
No Goal 1.48 7.04 5.46
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.12 4.77 3.14
NG+Un 2.5 1.6 7.04 5.24



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *