Cardiff Vs Huddersfield

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Cardiff and Huddersfield for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.38 3.26 3.11 2.13 1.75
Estim 2.99 3.69 2.54 2.22 1.82
Value % -8.57 -3.57 7.22 -1.9 -2.2



Basic Data and latest results


Cardiff basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 1 5 6 1 6 2 4
Last 3 0 1 2 11 1 3 1 2
At Home 1 1 6 17 3 8 3 5




Cardiff latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
03 Nov QPR H 0 1 L U Ng
30 Oct Stoke A 3 3 D O Gg
23 Oct Middlesbrough H 0 2 L U Ng
20 Oct Fulham A 0 2 L U Ng
17 Oct Swansea A 0 3 L O Ng
02 Oct Reading H 0 1 L U Ng
28 Sep West Brom H 0 4 L O Ng
25 Sep Blackburn A 1 5 L O Gg



Huddersfield basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 3 2 1 5
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 1 2
At Away 2 3 3 38 5 6 4 4




Huddersfield latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Nov Peterboro A 1 1 D U Gg
30 Oct Millwall H 1 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Bournemouth A 0 3 L O Ng
20 Oct Birmingham H 0 0 D U Ng
16 Oct Hull H 2 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Luton A 0 0 D U Ng
28 Sep Blackburn H 3 2 W O Gg
25 Sep Swansea A 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Cardiff is -0.815 and for the Huddersfield is 0.181.
  • The home dynamic for the Cardiff is -0.649 and the dynamic as a guest for the Huddersfield is -0.148.
  • The offensive ability for the Cardiff is -1 and for the Huddersfield is -0.316.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Cardiff is -1 and for the Huddersfield is 0.762.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Cardiff 33% 36% 17% 14%
Huddersfield 31% 30% 24% 15%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cardiff to score 1.29 goals and Huddersfield to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cardiff to score 1.13 goals and Huddersfield to score 1.24 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.37 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.11 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 9.8 0-1 3.22
1 4.78 2-3 2.13
2 4.2 4+ 4.52
3 4.33 Ov 1.5 1.45
4 7.25 Un 1.5 3.22
5 16.39 Ov 2.5 2.21
6+ 45.45 Un 2.5 1.82
Gg 2.16 Ov 3.5 4.52
NoG 1.86 Un 3.5 1.28


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.8 3.05 3.17
2-3 goals 3.19 4.42 2.17
4+ goals 2.83 3.51 2.76
Ov 1.5 3.07 4.08 2.33
Un 1.5 2.8 3.05 3.17
Ov 2.5 2.61 7.17 2.09
Un 2.5 3.37 2.64 3.08
Ov 3.5 2.83 3.51 2.76
Un 3.5 3.02 3.75 2.48
Goal-Goal 3.62 2.74 2.79
No Goal 2.59 5.27 2.36
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.79 5.67 2.15
NG+Un 2.5 2.72 5.27 2.49



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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