Cremonese Vs Spal

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Cremonese and Spal for Serie B (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.09 3.15 3.85 2.23 1.67
Estim 2.08 3.57 4.18 2.37 1.73
Value % 0.23 -3.73 -2.05 -2.65 -2.08



Basic Data and latest results


Cremonese basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 5 4 1 5
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 3 1 2
At Home 3 2 1 61 5 3 2 4




Cremonese latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
01 Nov Pordenone A 2 2 D O Gg
28 Oct Pisa H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Brescia A 0 1 L U Ng
17 Oct Benevento H 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Ternana H 2 0 W U Ng
26 Sep Vicenza A 1 0 W U Ng
22 Sep Perugia H 0 3 L O Ng
19 Sep Parma A 2 1 W O Gg



Spal basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 4 4 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 1 2
At Away 1 1 3 27 2 3 1 4




Spal latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
01 Nov Perugia H 1 2 L O Gg
28 Oct Ascoli A 1 0 W U Ng
24 Oct Como H 1 1 D U Gg
17 Oct Cittadella A 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Parma H 2 2 D O Gg
26 Sep Ternana A 0 1 L U Ng
21 Sep Vicenza H 3 2 W O Gg
18 Sep Reggina A 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Cremonese is 0.111 and for the Spal is -0.181.
  • The home dynamic for the Cremonese is 0.211 and the dynamic as a guest for the Spal is -0.3.
  • The offensive ability for the Cremonese is 0.573 and for the Spal is 0.171.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Cremonese is -0.33 and for the Spal is -0.036.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Cremonese 21% 40% 22% 18%
Spal 38% 38% 17% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Cremonese to score 1.37 goals and Spal to score 0.9 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.26 goals in the game and the home team Cremonese to win by 0.47 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Cremonese to score 1.36 goals and Spal to score 0.93 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Cremonese to win by 0.43 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.66 0-1 3.24
1 4.35 2-3 2
2 3.72 4+ 5.26
3 4.33 Ov 1.5 1.45
4 7.58 Un 1.5 3.24
5 22.22 Ov 2.5 2.38
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.73
Gg 2.04 Ov 3.5 5.26
NoG 1.96 Un 3.5 1.24


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.06 3.91 3.86
2-3 goals 2.15 3.29 4.35
4+ goals 1.94 3.88 4.42
Ov 1.5 2.08 3.43 4.37
Un 1.5 2.06 3.91 3.86
Ov 2.5 1.69 8.59 3.42
Un 2.5 2.49 2.5 5.03
Ov 3.5 1.94 3.88 4.42
Un 3.5 2.11 3.5 4.15
Goal-Goal 2.71 2.44 4.54
No Goal 1.7 6.44 3.92
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.87 6.9 3.13
NG+Un 2.5 1.84 6.44 3.7



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *