Crotone Vs Monza

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Crotone and Monza for Serie B (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.48 3.11 2.94 2.05 1.81
Estim 2.58 3.51 3.05 2.26 1.79
Value % -1.56 -3.66 -1.23 -4.53 0.62



Basic Data and latest results


Crotone basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 3 6 3 3
Last 3 0 0 3 0 1 3 1 2
At Home 1 3 2 33 4 6 4 2




Crotone latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
01 Nov Frosinone A 1 2 L O Gg
28 Oct Benevento H 0 2 L U Ng
22 Oct Alessandria A 0 1 L U Ng
16 Oct Pisa H 2 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Ascoli H 2 2 D O Gg
25 Sep Cosenza A 0 1 L U Ng
21 Sep Lecce H 0 3 L O Ng
17 Sep Brescia A 2 2 D O Gg



Monza basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 4 3 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 1 0 3
At Away 0 4 2 22 3 4 2 4




Monza latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
01 Nov Alessandria H 1 0 W U Ng
27 Oct Vicenza A 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Cittadella H 1 0 W U Ng
17 Oct Parma A 0 0 D U Ng
01 Oct Lecce A 0 3 L O Ng
25 Sep Pordenone H 3 1 W O Gg
21 Sep Pisa A 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Ternana H 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Crotone is -0.533 and for the Monza is 0.405.
  • The home dynamic for the Crotone is -0.342 and the dynamic as a guest for the Monza is -0.325.
  • The offensive ability for the Crotone is -0.209 and for the Monza is 0.14.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Crotone is -1 and for the Monza is 0.482.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Crotone 27% 35% 28% 11%
Monza 28% 41% 20% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Crotone to score 1.28 goals and Monza to score 1.14 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.42 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.14 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Crotone to score 1.23 goals and Monza to score 1.13 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.33 0-1 3.52
1 4.78 2-3 1.93
2 3.65 4+ 5
3 4.12 Ov 1.5 1.39
4 7.3 Un 1.5 3.52
5 19.61 Ov 2.5 2.26
6+ 83.33 Un 2.5 1.79
Gg 1.9 Ov 3.5 5
NoG 2.11 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.87 3.79 2.58
2-3 goals 2.32 3.59 3.45
4+ goals 3.03 3.03 2.94
Ov 1.5 2.48 3.41 3.29
Un 1.5 2.87 3.79 2.58
Ov 2.5 2.1 6.71 2.67
Un 2.5 3.15 2.55 3.44
Ov 3.5 3.03 3.03 2.94
Un 3.5 2.49 3.66 3.08
Goal-Goal 2.93 2.51 3.85
No Goal 2.28 6.32 2.48
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.13 5.8 2.8
NG+Un 2.5 2.34 6.32 2.56



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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