Empoli Vs Genoa

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Empoli and Genoa for Serie A (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.16 3.65 3.29 1.67 2.27
Estim 2.79 3.02 3.23 2.25 1.8
Value % -10.45 5.72 0.56 -15.44 11.5



Basic Data and latest results


Empoli basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 4 6 4 2
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 3 2 1
At Home 1 0 5 17 4 6 5 1




Empoli latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Sassuolo A 2 1 W O Gg
27 Oct Inter H 0 2 L U Ng
23 Oct Salernitana A 4 2 W O Gg
17 Oct Atalanta H 1 4 L O Gg
03 Oct Roma A 0 2 L U Ng
26 Sep Bologna H 4 2 W O Gg
22 Sep Cagliari A 2 0 W U Ng
19 Sep Sampdoria H 0 3 L O Ng



Genoa basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 4 2 22 4 5 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 2 1 2
At Away 1 2 3 28 4 6 4 2




Genoa latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Venezia H 0 0 D U Ng
26 Oct Spezia A 1 1 D U Gg
22 Oct Torino A 2 3 L O Gg
17 Oct Sassuolo H 2 2 D O Gg
02 Oct Salernitana A 0 1 L U Ng
25 Sep Verona H 3 3 D O Gg
21 Sep Bologna A 2 2 D O Gg
18 Sep Fiorentina H 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Empoli is 0.015 and for the Genoa is -0.379.
  • The home dynamic for the Empoli is -0.912 and the dynamic as a guest for the Genoa is -0.342.
  • The offensive ability for the Empoli is 0.182 and for the Genoa is 0.036.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Empoli is -1 and for the Genoa is -0.451.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Empoli 36% 9% 46% 9%
Genoa 43% 10% 34% 13%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Empoli to score 1.65 goals and Genoa to score 1.21 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.87 goals in the game and the home team Empoli to win by 0.44 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Empoli to score 1.28 goals and Genoa to score 1.18 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.46 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.1 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 6.54 0-1 4.39
1 13.33 2-3 2.04
2 3.06 4+ 3.56
3 6.13 Ov 1.5 1.3
4 5.62 Un 1.5 4.39
5 10.99 Ov 2.5 2.25
6+ 83.33 Un 2.5 1.8
Gg 2.72 Ov 3.5 3.56
NoG 1.58 Un 3.5 1.39


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 5.85 1.49 6.33
2-3 goals 1.75 54.44 2.44
4+ goals 7.03 1.66 3.9
Ov 1.5 2.41 4.33 2.82
Un 1.5 5.85 1.49 6.33
Ov 2.5 3.55 2.63 2.96
Un 2.5 2.37 3.43 3.49
Ov 3.5 7.03 1.66 3.9
Un 3.5 2.25 4.43 3.03
Goal-Goal 4.27 2.06 3.56
No Goal 2.32 4.13 3.07
G-G+Ov 2.5 4.16 2.12 3.48
NG+Un 2.5 2.33 4.13 3.43



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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