Espanol Vs Granada

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Espanol and Granada for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.87 3.38 4.53 2.34 1.62
Estim 1.88 4.03 4.59 1.94 2.06
Value % -0.28 -4.77 -0.29 8.81 -13.18



Basic Data and latest results


Espanol basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 5 3 3
Last 3 0 2 1 22 3 3 2 1
At Home 3 2 1 61 5 3 2 4




Espanol latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Getafe A 1 2 L O Gg
26 Oct Ath Bilbao H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Elche A 2 2 D O Gg
18 Oct Cadiz H 2 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Real Madrid H 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Sevilla A 0 2 L U Ng
22 Sep Alaves H 1 0 W U Ng
19 Sep Betis A 2 2 D O Gg



Granada basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 4 2 4
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 2 1 2
At Away 1 3 2 33 3 4 2 4




Granada latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
01 Nov Levante A 3 0 W O Ng
28 Oct Getafe H 1 1 D U Gg
22 Oct Osasuna A 1 1 D U Gg
03 Oct Sevilla H 1 0 W U Ng
27 Sep Celta A 0 1 L U Ng
23 Sep Sociedad H 2 3 L O Gg
20 Sep Barcelona A 1 1 D U Gg
13 Sep Betis H 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Espanol is -0.022 and for the Granada is 0.078.
  • The home dynamic for the Espanol is 0.298 and the dynamic as a guest for the Granada is -0.089.
  • The offensive ability for the Espanol is 0.664 and for the Granada is 0.585.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Espanol is -0.626 and for the Granada is 0.005.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Espanol 19% 31% 23% 27%
Granada 36% 39% 17% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Espanol to score 1.42 goals and Granada to score 0.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.19 goals in the game and the home team Espanol to win by 0.65 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Espanol to score 1.59 goals and Granada to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.57 goals in the game and the home team Espanol to win by 0.61 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.71 0-1 3.98
1 5.46 2-3 2.04
2 4.27 4+ 3.85
3 3.92 Ov 1.5 1.34
4 5.85 Un 1.5 3.98
5 15.38 Ov 2.5 1.94
6+ 41.67 Un 2.5 2.06
Gg 1.93 Ov 3.5 3.85
NoG 2.08 Un 3.5 1.35


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.28 3.69 3.44
2-3 goals 1.79 4.14 4.99
4+ goals 1.73 4.13 5.53
Ov 1.5 1.77 4.14 5.17
Un 1.5 2.28 3.69 3.44
Ov 2.5 1.52 8.17 4.52
Un 2.5 2.49 2.61 4.66
Ov 3.5 1.73 4.13 5.53
Un 3.5 1.93 3.98 4.33
Goal-Goal 2.16 2.87 5.3
No Goal 1.64 7.07 4.01
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.67 6.37 4.09
NG+Un 2.5 1.88 7.07 3.53



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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