Everton Vs Tottenham

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Everton and Tottenham for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.08 3.29 2.43 2.05 1.83
Estim 1.99 3.8 4.26 2.07 1.93
Value % 17.78 -4.08 -17.68 -0.47 -2.83



Basic Data and latest results


Everton basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 4 5 3 3
Last 3 0 0 3 0 2 3 2 1
At Home 3 0 2 60 4 4 3 2




Everton latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
01 Nov Wolves A 1 2 L O Gg
23 Oct Watford H 2 5 L O Gg
17 Oct West Ham H 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Man United A 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Norwich H 2 0 W U Ng
18 Sep Aston Villa A 0 3 L O Ng
13 Sep Burnley H 3 1 W O Gg
28 Aug Brighton A 2 0 W U Ng



Tottenham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 0 4 33 3 6 5 1
Last 3 1 0 2 33 1 3 2 1
At Away 2 0 3 40 3 4 3 2




Tottenham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Man United H 0 3 L O Ng
24 Oct West Ham A 0 1 L U Ng
17 Oct Newcastle A 3 2 W O Gg
03 Oct Aston Villa H 2 1 W O Gg
26 Sep Arsenal A 1 3 L O Gg
19 Sep Chelsea H 0 3 L O Ng
11 Sep Crystal Palace A 0 3 L O Ng
29 Aug Watford H 1 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Everton is -0.541 and for the Tottenham is -0.397.
  • The home dynamic for the Everton is -0.018 and the dynamic as a guest for the Tottenham is -0.198.
  • The offensive ability for the Everton is 0.245 and for the Tottenham is -0.451.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Everton is -0.652 and for the Tottenham is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Everton 19% 38% 17% 26%
Tottenham 37% 36% 17% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Everton to score 1.11 goals and Tottenham to score 1.32 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.21 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Everton to score 1.5 goals and Tottenham to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.48 goals in the game and the home team Everton to win by 0.52 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.29 0-1 3.56
1 4.74 2-3 2.1
2 4.24 4+ 4.15
3 4.15 Ov 1.5 1.39
4 6.33 Un 1.5 3.56
5 16.67 Ov 2.5 2.07
6+ 43.48 Un 2.5 1.93
Gg 1.96 Ov 3.5 4.15
NoG 2.04 Un 3.5 1.32


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.97 4.01 4.13
2-3 goals 2.17 3.41 4.08
4+ goals 1.73 4.63 4.82
Ov 1.5 2 3.74 4.3
Un 1.5 1.97 4.01 4.13
Ov 2.5 1.63 9.27 3.6
Un 2.5 2.51 2.46 5.12
Ov 3.5 1.73 4.63 4.82
Un 3.5 2.09 3.61 4.1
Goal-Goal 2.54 2.65 4.35
No Goal 1.62 7 4.15
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.85 7.1 3.15
NG+Un 2.5 1.83 7 3.73



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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