FC Koln Vs Union Berlin

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between FC Koln and Union Berlin for Bundesliga (Germany).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.14 3.55 3.43 1.78 2.12
Estim 2.23 3.97 3.34 1.78 2.28
Value % -1.89 -2.98 0.79 0 -3.31



Basic Data and latest results


FC Koln basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 4 6 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 1 3 2 1
At Home 3 2 0 73 5 5 4 1




FC Koln latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Dortmund A 0 2 L U Ng
24 Oct Leverkusen H 2 2 D O Gg
15 Oct Hoffenheim A 0 5 L O Ng
01 Oct Greuther Furth H 3 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Ein Frankfurt A 1 1 D U Gg
18 Sep RB Leipzig H 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Freiburg A 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Bochum H 2 1 W O Gg



Union Berlin basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 6 4 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 1 2
At Away 1 2 1 42 4 4 3 1




Union Berlin latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Bayern Munich H 2 5 L O Gg
24 Oct Stuttgart A 1 1 D U Gg
16 Oct Wolfsburg H 2 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Mainz A 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Bielefeld H 1 0 W U Ng
19 Sep Dortmund A 2 4 L O Gg
11 Sep Augsburg H 0 0 D U Ng
29 Aug M’gladbach H 2 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the FC Koln is -0.207 and for the Union Berlin is 0.164.
  • The home dynamic for the FC Koln is 0.509 and the dynamic as a guest for the Union Berlin is 0.08.
  • The offensive ability for the FC Koln is 0.091 and for the Union Berlin is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the FC Koln is -1 and for the Union Berlin is -0.098.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
FC Koln 23% 33% 13% 31%
Union Berlin 31% 32% 22% 16%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) FC Koln to score 1.59 goals and Union Berlin to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.72 goals in the game and the home team FC Koln to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) FC Koln to score 1.53 goals and Union Berlin to score 1.22 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team FC Koln to win by 0.31 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.29 0-1 4.08
1 5.71 2-3 2.28
2 5.15 4+ 3.15
3 4.08 Ov 1.5 1.32
4 5.56 Un 1.5 4.08
5 11.36 Ov 2.5 1.78
6+ 20.41 Un 2.5 2.28
Gg 1.87 Ov 3.5 3.15
NoG 2.15 Un 3.5 1.46


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.38 3.5 3.4
2-3 goals 2.44 4.18 2.85
4+ goals 1.91 4.06 4.34
Ov 1.5 2.18 4.13 3.33
Un 1.5 2.38 3.5 3.4
Ov 2.5 1.84 7.21 3.14
Un 2.5 3.05 2.51 3.66
Ov 3.5 1.91 4.06 4.34
Un 3.5 2.42 3.91 3.03
Goal-Goal 2.57 2.92 3.72
No Goal 1.93 6.66 3.01
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.07 5.51 2.99
NG+Un 2.5 2.32 6.66 2.78



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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