For Sittard Vs PSV Eindhoven

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between For Sittard and PSV Eindhoven for Eredivisie (Holland).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 9.44 5.67 1.33 1.5 2.69
Estim 2.84 3.56 2.72 1.84 2.19
Value % 24.62 10.45 -38.42 -12.32 8.49



Basic Data and latest results


For Sittard basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 5 5 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 1 2
At Home 2 1 2 47 4 4 4 1




For Sittard latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Go Ahead Eagles A 3 4 L O Gg
22 Oct Willem II A 1 1 D U Gg
16 Oct Cambuur H 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Nijmegen H 1 3 L O Gg
25 Sep Vitesse A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Sep Ajax H 0 5 L O Ng
18 Sep Heerenveen A 0 1 L U Ng
12 Sep Sparta Rotterdam A 1 3 L O Gg



PSV Eindhoven basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 0 2 67 5 6 6 0
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 3 3 0
At Away 3 0 2 60 4 3 4 1




PSV Eindhoven latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Twente H 5 2 W O Gg
24 Oct Ajax A 0 5 L O Ng
16 Oct Zwolle H 3 1 W O Gg
03 Oct Sparta Rotterdam H 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Willem II A 1 2 L O Gg
22 Sep Go Ahead Eagles A 2 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Feyenoord H 0 4 L O Ng
11 Sep AZ Alkmaar A 3 0 W O Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the For Sittard is -0.319 and for the PSV Eindhoven is 0.379.
  • The home dynamic for the For Sittard is -0.158 and the dynamic as a guest for the PSV Eindhoven is 0.173.
  • The offensive ability for the For Sittard is 0.664 and for the PSV Eindhoven is 0.482.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the For Sittard is -0.591 and for the PSV Eindhoven is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
For Sittard 23% 38% 19% 20%
PSV Eindhoven 18% 44% 23% 16%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) For Sittard to score 0.6 goals and PSV Eindhoven to score 2.59 goals.
So, they expect a total of 3.19 goals in the game and the guest team PSV Eindhoven to win by 1.99 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) For Sittard to score 1.37 goals and PSV Eindhoven to score 1.38 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.01 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 25 0-1 4.85
1 6.02 2-3 2.04
2 4 4+ 3.3
3 4.15 Ov 1.5 1.26
4 5.18 Un 1.5 4.85
5 12.99 Ov 2.5 1.84
6+ 30.3 Un 2.5 2.19
Gg 1.57 Ov 3.5 3.3
NoG 2.75 Un 3.5 1.43


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.07 5.15 2.08
2-3 goals 3.27 2.98 2.79
4+ goals 2.26 3.99 3.26
Ov 1.5 2.8 3.29 2.95
Un 1.5 3.07 5.15 2.08
Ov 2.5 2.17 7.16 2.51
Un 2.5 4.56 2.22 3.02
Ov 3.5 2.26 3.99 3.26
Un 3.5 3.21 3.4 2.53
Goal-Goal 2.95 2.64 3.54
No Goal 2.69 9.08 1.93
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.19 6.21 2.62
NG+Un 2.5 2.91 9.08 1.93



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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