Fuenlabrada Vs Eibar

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Fuenlabrada and Eibar for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.17 2.98 2.4 2.56 1.52
Estim 2.4 3.51 3.34 2.44 1.69
Value % 10.12 -5.07 -11.73 1.92 -6.62



Basic Data and latest results


Fuenlabrada basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 4 4 4 2
Last 3 0 0 3 0 3 3 3 0
At Home 2 3 2 43 6 6 4 3




Fuenlabrada latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
03 Nov Las Palmas A 1 2 L O Gg
31 Oct Girona H 1 2 L O Gg
23 Oct Ibiza A 1 3 L O Gg
20 Oct Amorebieta H 0 0 D U Ng
17 Oct Ponferradina A 0 0 D U Ng
10 Oct Leganes H 2 1 W O Gg
03 Oct Malaga A 0 1 L U Ng
27 Sep Cartagena H 2 1 W O Gg



Eibar basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 5 3 2 4
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 1 2
At Away 3 2 2 52 5 5 2 5




Eibar latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
03 Nov Oviedo H 1 0 W U Ng
31 Oct Valladolid A 0 2 L U Ng
22 Oct Cartagena H 2 1 W O Gg
19 Oct Tenerife A 1 0 W U Ng
15 Oct Almeria H 1 0 W U Ng
09 Oct Mirandes A 3 3 D O Gg
03 Oct Ibiza H 3 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Amorebieta A 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Fuenlabrada is -0.422 and for the Eibar is 0.569.
  • The home dynamic for the Fuenlabrada is 0.088 and the dynamic as a guest for the Eibar is 0.215.
  • The offensive ability for the Fuenlabrada is 0.245 and for the Eibar is 0.482.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Fuenlabrada is -0.278 and for the Eibar is 0.42.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Fuenlabrada 27% 35% 24% 13%
Eibar 35% 37% 20% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 0.93 goals and Eibar to score 1.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.06 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.2 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Fuenlabrada to score 1.23 goals and Eibar to score 1.02 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.42 0-1 3.12
1 4.44 2-3 2.02
2 3.72 4+ 5.46
3 4.41 Ov 1.5 1.47
4 7.94 Un 1.5 3.12
5 21.74 Ov 2.5 2.44
6+ 90.91 Un 2.5 1.69
Gg 2.12 Ov 3.5 5.46
NoG 1.89 Un 3.5 1.22


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.59 3.34 3.18
2-3 goals 2.26 3.82 3.37
4+ goals 2.54 3.1 3.52
Ov 1.5 2.33 3.59 3.41
Un 1.5 2.59 3.34 3.18
Ov 2.5 1.99 6.95 2.83
Un 2.5 2.82 2.61 3.81
Ov 3.5 2.54 3.1 3.52
Un 3.5 2.38 3.62 3.29
Goal-Goal 2.93 2.49 3.89
No Goal 2.08 5.51 2.96
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.12 5.78 2.82
NG+Un 2.5 2.2 5.51 2.97



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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