Gil Vicente Vs Arouca

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Gil Vicente and Arouca for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.96 3.34 4.01 2.2 1.7
Estim 1.99 3.79 4.27 2.18 1.85
Value % -0.77 -3.55 -1.52 0.42 -4.77



Basic Data and latest results


Gil Vicente basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 5 6 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 2 1
At Home 1 1 3 27 3 4 3 2




Gil Vicente latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Maritimo A 2 1 W O Gg
25 Oct Sp Braga H 0 1 L U Ng
03 Oct Estoril A 2 2 D O Gg
24 Sep Porto H 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Belenenses A 1 1 D U Gg
12 Sep Vizela H 2 2 D O Gg
29 Aug Santa Clara A 0 1 L U Ng
21 Aug Benfica H 0 2 L U Ng



Arouca basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 5 4 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 1 1 2
At Away 0 2 3 13 2 4 3 2




Arouca latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
29 Oct Tondela H 2 0 W U Ng
24 Oct Pacos Ferreira A 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Sp Lisbon H 1 2 L O Gg
25 Sep Moreirense A 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Guimaraes H 2 2 D O Gg
13 Sep Maritimo A 2 2 D O Gg
28 Aug Porto A 0 3 L O Ng
20 Aug Famalicao H 2 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Gil Vicente is -0.148 and for the Arouca is -0.164.
  • The home dynamic for the Gil Vicente is -0.667 and the dynamic as a guest for the Arouca is -0.57.
  • The offensive ability for the Gil Vicente is 0.545 and for the Arouca is 0.482.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Gil Vicente is -1 and for the Arouca is 0.067.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Gil Vicente 22% 32% 24% 21%
Arouca 38% 39% 14% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Gil Vicente to score 1.43 goals and Arouca to score 0.86 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.29 goals in the game and the home team Gil Vicente to win by 0.57 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Gil Vicente to score 1.44 goals and Arouca to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.38 goals in the game and the home team Gil Vicente to win by 0.5 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.05 0-1 3.42
1 4.78 2-3 2.04
2 4 4+ 4.59
3 4.17 Ov 1.5 1.41
4 6.85 Un 1.5 3.42
5 19.23 Ov 2.5 2.18
6+ 50 Un 2.5 1.85
Gg 2.06 Ov 3.5 4.59
NoG 1.94 Un 3.5 1.28


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.39 3.52 3.36
2-3 goals 1.83 3.86 5.16
4+ goals 1.95 4.11 4.11
Ov 1.5 1.86 3.93 4.78
Un 1.5 2.39 3.52 3.36
Ov 2.5 1.6 8.64 3.88
Un 2.5 2.52 2.58 4.63
Ov 3.5 1.95 4.11 4.11
Un 3.5 2.01 3.72 4.3
Goal-Goal 2.33 2.69 5
No Goal 1.75 6.2 3.73
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.72 6.75 3.69
NG+Un 2.5 1.93 6.2 3.55



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *