Greuther Furth Vs Ein Frankfurt

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Greuther Furth and Ein Frankfurt for Bundesliga (Germany).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 3.58 3.74 1.98 1.72 2.16
Estim 3.16 3.89 2.34 1.84 2.19
Value % 3.71 -1.03 -7.77 -3.79 -0.63



Basic Data and latest results


Greuther Furth basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 0 6 0 5 6 5 1
Last 3 0 0 3 0 2 3 2 1
At Home 0 1 3 8 2 4 1 3




Greuther Furth latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Freiburg A 1 3 L O Gg
23 Oct RB Leipzig A 1 4 L O Gg
16 Oct Bochum H 0 1 L U Ng
01 Oct FC Koln A 1 3 L O Gg
24 Sep Bayern Munich H 1 3 L O Gg
17 Sep Hertha A 1 2 L O Gg
11 Sep Wolfsburg H 0 2 L U Ng
28 Aug Mainz A 0 3 L O Ng



Ein Frankfurt basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 5 6 2 4
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 1 2
At Away 1 2 2 33 4 5 2 3




Ein Frankfurt latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct RB Leipzig H 1 1 D U Gg
24 Oct Bochum A 0 2 L U Ng
16 Oct Hertha H 1 2 L O Gg
03 Oct Bayern Munich A 2 1 W O Gg
25 Sep FC Koln H 1 1 D U Gg
19 Sep Wolfsburg A 1 1 D U Gg
12 Sep Stuttgart H 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Bielefeld A 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Greuther Furth is -1 and for the Ein Frankfurt is -0.241.
  • The home dynamic for the Greuther Furth is -1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ein Frankfurt is -0.148.
  • The offensive ability for the Greuther Furth is 0.573 and for the Ein Frankfurt is 0.482.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Greuther Furth is -1 and for the Ein Frankfurt is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Greuther Furth 29% 36% 16% 19%
Ein Frankfurt 24% 29% 23% 23%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Greuther Furth to score 1.09 goals and Ein Frankfurt to score 1.69 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.78 goals in the game and the guest team Ein Frankfurt to win by 0.6 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Greuther Furth to score 1.24 goals and Ein Frankfurt to score 1.45 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.69 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.21 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.08 0-1 4.1
1 5.78 2-3 2.19
2 4.69 4+ 3.34
3 4.1 Ov 1.5 1.32
4 5.71 Un 1.5 4.1
5 12.35 Ov 2.5 1.84
6+ 23.26 Un 2.5 2.19
Gg 1.87 Ov 3.5 3.34
NoG 2.15 Un 3.5 1.43


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.8 3.44 2.84
2-3 goals 3.49 4.35 2.07
4+ goals 3.05 3.69 2.49
Ov 1.5 3.3 4.06 2.22
Un 1.5 2.8 3.44 2.84
Ov 2.5 2.86 6.7 2
Un 2.5 3.63 2.6 2.95
Ov 3.5 3.05 3.69 2.49
Un 3.5 3.22 3.98 2.28
Goal-Goal 3.69 2.88 2.62
No Goal 2.72 6.55 2.09
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.97 5.31 2.11
NG+Un 2.5 2.79 6.55 2.27



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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