Groningen Vs Waalwijk

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Groningen and Waalwijk for Eredivisie (Holland).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.77 3.77 4.36 1.81 2.04
Estim 2.21 4.03 3.33 1.62 2.61
Value % -11.25 -1.71 7.09 6.48 -10.71



Basic Data and latest results


Groningen basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 3 5 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 1 2
At Home 1 3 1 40 3 3 0 5




Groningen latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Nijmegen A 0 3 L O Ng
24 Oct AZ Alkmaar H 2 0 W U Ng
17 Oct Sparta Rotterdam A 1 1 D U Gg
01 Oct Twente H 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Ajax A 0 3 L O Ng
22 Sep Vitesse H 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Willem II A 1 2 L O Gg
12 Sep Heerenveen H 1 1 D U Gg



Waalwijk basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 4 5 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 1 2
At Away 0 3 2 20 4 5 4 1




Waalwijk latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Cambuur H 0 1 L U Ng
23 Oct Sparta Rotterdam H 1 0 W U Ng
16 Oct Feyenoord A 2 2 D O Gg
02 Oct Go Ahead Eagles H 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep Heracles A 0 1 L U Ng
21 Sep Willem II H 1 2 L O Gg
18 Sep Utrecht A 2 2 D O Gg
12 Sep Vitesse H 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Groningen is -0.296 and for the Waalwijk is -0.353.
  • The home dynamic for the Groningen is -0.105 and the dynamic as a guest for the Waalwijk is -0.367.
  • The offensive ability for the Groningen is -0.182 and for the Waalwijk is 0.036.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Groningen is -0.565 and for the Waalwijk is -0.482.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Groningen 20% 26% 26% 28%
Waalwijk 26% 32% 24% 18%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Groningen to score 1.75 goals and Waalwijk to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and the home team Groningen to win by 0.84 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Groningen to score 1.62 goals and Waalwijk to score 1.33 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.95 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.29 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 19.61 0-1 5.49
1 7.63 2-3 2.19
2 4.95 4+ 2.77
3 3.92 Ov 1.5 1.22
4 5.03 Un 1.5 5.49
5 8.85 Ov 2.5 1.62
6+ 20.41 Un 2.5 2.6
Gg 1.68 Ov 3.5 2.77
NoG 2.48 Un 3.5 1.56


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.68 3.57 2.89
2-3 goals 2.01 5.31 3.17
4+ goals 2.3 3.22 3.92
Ov 1.5 2.13 4.13 3.47
Un 1.5 2.68 3.57 2.89
Ov 2.5 1.96 5.5 3.26
Un 2.5 2.8 2.8 3.49
Ov 3.5 2.3 3.22 3.92
Un 3.5 2.17 4.66 3.09
Goal-Goal 2.45 3.01 3.85
No Goal 1.93 7.92 2.81
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.1 4.55 3.29
NG+Un 2.5 2.18 7.92 2.71



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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