Lecce Vs Parma

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Lecce and Parma for Serie B (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.06 3.41 3.36 1.82 2
Estim 2.26 3.73 3.45 2.15 1.87
Value % -4.3 -2.52 -0.78 -8.43 3.48



Basic Data and latest results


Lecce basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 3 0 67 5 4 3 3
Last 3 1 2 0 56 2 2 1 2
At Home 3 2 0 73 4 3 3 2




Lecce latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
01 Nov Cosenza H 3 1 W O Gg
28 Oct Brescia A 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Perugia H 0 0 D U Ng
16 Oct Ascoli A 1 1 D U Gg
01 Oct Monza H 3 0 W O Ng
25 Sep Cittadella A 2 1 W O Gg
21 Sep Crotone A 3 0 W O Ng
18 Sep Alessandria H 3 2 W O Gg



Parma basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 3 1 50 5 4 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 3 2 2 1
At Away 2 2 2 44 6 5 6 0




Parma latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
01 Nov Vicenza H 1 0 W U Ng
28 Oct Cittadella A 2 1 W O Gg
24 Oct Reggina A 1 2 L O Gg
17 Oct Monza H 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Spal A 2 2 D O Gg
26 Sep Pisa H 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Ternana A 1 3 L O Gg
19 Sep Cremonese H 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Lecce is 0.481 and for the Parma is 0.233.
  • The home dynamic for the Lecce is 0.561 and the dynamic as a guest for the Parma is 0.055.
  • The offensive ability for the Lecce is 0.573 and for the Parma is 0.554.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Lecce is -0.243 and for the Parma is 0.005.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Lecce 23% 34% 28% 15%
Parma 35% 34% 20% 11%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lecce to score 1.55 goals and Parma to score 1.09 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.64 goals in the game and the home team Lecce to win by 0.46 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lecce to score 1.35 goals and Parma to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.27 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.5 0-1 3.61
1 5.08 2-3 2.01
2 3.89 4+ 4.44
3 4.15 Ov 1.5 1.38
4 6.85 Un 1.5 3.61
5 16.13 Ov 2.5 2.15
6+ 58.82 Un 2.5 1.87
Gg 1.99 Ov 3.5 4.44
NoG 2.01 Un 3.5 1.29


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.35 3.46 3.51
2-3 goals 2.06 4.33 3.53
4+ goals 2.78 3.08 3.17
Ov 1.5 2.24 3.85 3.41
Un 1.5 2.35 3.46 3.51
Ov 2.5 2.05 6.38 2.81
Un 2.5 2.5 2.74 4.27
Ov 3.5 2.78 3.08 3.17
Un 3.5 2.15 3.97 3.52
Goal-Goal 2.87 2.67 3.61
No Goal 1.87 6.22 3.28
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.21 5.3 2.78
NG+Un 2.5 1.96 6.22 3.35



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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