Leeds Vs Leicester

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Leeds and Leicester for Premier League (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.76 3.58 2.52 1.67 2.27
Estim 2.47 3.86 2.98 1.88 2.14
Value % 4.25 -2.03 -6.13 -6.69 2.68



Basic Data and latest results


Leeds basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 5 2 4
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 1 2
At Home 1 2 2 33 4 4 3 2




Leeds latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Norwich A 2 1 W O Gg
23 Oct Wolves H 1 1 D U Gg
16 Oct Southampton A 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Watford H 1 0 W U Ng
25 Sep West Ham H 1 2 L O Gg
17 Sep Newcastle A 1 1 D U Gg
12 Sep Liverpool H 0 3 L O Ng
29 Aug Burnley A 1 1 D U Gg



Leicester basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 6 5 1
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 3 2 1
At Away 2 1 2 47 5 5 5 0




Leicester latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Arsenal H 0 2 L U Ng
24 Oct Brentford A 2 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Man United H 4 2 W O Gg
03 Oct Crystal Palace A 2 2 D O Gg
25 Sep Burnley H 2 2 D O Gg
19 Sep Brighton A 1 2 L O Gg
11 Sep Man City H 0 1 L U Ng
28 Aug Norwich A 2 1 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Leeds is 0.037 and for the Leicester is 0.017.
  • The home dynamic for the Leeds is -0.333 and the dynamic as a guest for the Leicester is 0.105.
  • The offensive ability for the Leeds is 0.573 and for the Leicester is 0.451.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Leeds is -0.626 and for the Leicester is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Leeds 28% 32% 12% 28%
Leicester 28% 34% 22% 16%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.39 goals and Leicester to score 1.48 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.87 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.09 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Leeds to score 1.41 goals and Leicester to score 1.25 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.66 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.66 0-1 3.79
1 5.41 2-3 2.28
2 4.93 4+ 3.36
3 4.26 Ov 1.5 1.36
4 5.78 Un 1.5 3.79
5 12.5 Ov 2.5 1.88
6+ 22.22 Un 2.5 2.14
Gg 1.93 Ov 3.5 3.36
NoG 2.07 Un 3.5 1.42


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.9 3.34 2.81
2-3 goals 2.79 4.02 2.55
4+ goals 1.9 4.2 4.26
Ov 1.5 2.34 4.09 3.04
Un 1.5 2.9 3.34 2.81
Ov 2.5 1.91 7.51 2.91
Un 2.5 3.71 2.48 3.05
Ov 3.5 1.9 4.2 4.26
Un 3.5 2.83 3.73 2.64
Goal-Goal 2.6 2.88 3.73
No Goal 2.34 6.1 2.45
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.06 5.76 2.94
NG+Un 2.5 2.84 6.1 2.34



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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