Lens Vs Troyes

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Lens and Troyes for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.63 4.08 5.44 1.76 2.15
Estim 1.92 3.98 4.41 2.02 1.98
Value % -9.27 0.62 4.29 -7.31 3.99



Basic Data and latest results


Lens basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 4 5 3 3
Last 3 1 0 2 33 2 3 2 1
At Home 3 2 1 61 5 4 3 3




Lens latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Lyon A 1 2 L O Gg
24 Oct Metz H 4 1 W O Gg
17 Oct Montpellier A 0 1 L U Ng
01 Oct Reims H 2 0 W U Ng
26 Sep Marseille A 3 2 W O Gg
22 Sep Strasbourg H 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Lille H 1 0 W U Ng
12 Sep Bordeaux A 3 2 W O Gg



Troyes basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 5 3 3
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 2 2 1
At Away 2 1 3 39 4 5 2 4




Troyes latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Rennes H 2 2 D O Gg
24 Oct Reims A 2 1 W O Gg
17 Oct Nice H 1 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Nantes A 0 2 L U Ng
26 Sep Angers H 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Lyon A 1 3 L O Gg
19 Sep Montpellier H 1 1 D U Gg
12 Sep Metz A 2 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Lens is -0.015 and for the Troyes is 0.06.
  • The home dynamic for the Lens is 0.298 and the dynamic as a guest for the Troyes is -0.097.
  • The offensive ability for the Lens is 0.245 and for the Troyes is 0.554.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Lens is -0.626 and for the Troyes is -0.513.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Lens 21% 25% 34% 20%
Troyes 36% 36% 20% 7%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lens to score 1.94 goals and Troyes to score 0.81 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.75 goals in the game and the home team Lens to win by 1.13 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lens to score 1.52 goals and Troyes to score 0.98 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.5 goals in the game and the home team Lens to win by 0.54 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 12.82 0-1 4.07
1 5.95 2-3 1.92
2 3.86 4+ 4.27
3 3.83 Ov 1.5 1.33
4 6.33 Un 1.5 4.07
5 15.87 Ov 2.5 2.02
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.98
Gg 2 Ov 3.5 4.27
NoG 2 Un 3.5 1.31


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.7 3.15 3.19
2-3 goals 1.62 5.78 4.73
4+ goals 2.11 2.82 5.85
Ov 1.5 1.75 4.36 5.03
Un 1.5 2.7 3.15 3.19
Ov 2.5 1.62 5.96 4.67
Un 2.5 2.34 3.01 4.17
Ov 3.5 2.11 2.82 5.85
Un 3.5 1.86 4.56 4.1
Goal-Goal 2.12 2.88 5.48
No Goal 1.75 6.42 3.68
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.74 4.93 4.49
NG+Un 2.5 1.92 6.42 3.43



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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