Lorient Vs Brest

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Lorient and Brest for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.49 3.27 2.98 1.95 1.91
Estim 1.86 4.13 4.55 2.04 1.96
Value % 13.6 -6.37 -11.58 -2.26 -1.34



Basic Data and latest results


Lorient basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 5 5 2 4
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 2 1
At Home 3 2 0 73 5 3 1 4




Lorient latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Strasbourg A 0 4 L O Ng
24 Oct Bordeaux H 1 1 D U Gg
17 Oct Marseille A 1 4 L O Gg
03 Oct Clermont H 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Lyon A 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Nice H 1 0 W U Ng
19 Sep Reims A 0 0 D U Ng
10 Sep Lille H 2 1 W O Gg



Brest basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 2 3 28 6 5 3 3
Last 3 1 2 0 56 3 2 0 3
At Away 0 3 3 17 6 6 3 3




Brest latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Monaco H 2 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Lille A 1 1 D U Gg
17 Oct Reims H 1 1 D U Gg
02 Oct Nice A 1 2 L O Gg
26 Sep Metz H 1 2 L O Gg
22 Sep Nantes A 1 3 L O Gg
19 Sep Clermont A 1 1 D U Gg
12 Sep Angers H 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Lorient is -0.237 and for the Brest is -0.293.
  • The home dynamic for the Lorient is 0.491 and the dynamic as a guest for the Brest is -0.519.
  • The offensive ability for the Lorient is 0.518 and for the Brest is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Lorient is -0.678 and for the Brest is -0.451.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Lorient 23% 19% 42% 17%
Brest 39% 36% 18% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lorient to score 1.34 goals and Brest to score 1.18 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.16 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lorient to score 1.53 goals and Brest to score 0.94 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.47 goals in the game and the home team Lorient to win by 0.59 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 11.36 0-1 4.12
1 6.45 2-3 1.87
2 3.75 4+ 4.48
3 3.75 Ov 1.5 1.32
4 6.76 Un 1.5 4.12
5 16.13 Ov 2.5 2.04
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.96
Gg 2.11 Ov 3.5 4.48
NoG 1.9 Un 3.5 1.29


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.38 2.76 2.93
2-3 goals 1.42 7.97 5.87
4+ goals 2.45 2.59 4.85
Ov 1.5 1.62 4.95 5.53
Un 1.5 3.38 2.76 2.93
Ov 2.5 1.6 5.7 5.05
Un 2.5 2.2 3.29 4.15
Ov 3.5 2.45 2.59 4.85
Un 3.5 1.73 5.01 4.47
Goal-Goal 1.96 3.09 5.99
No Goal 1.77 5.99 3.74
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.68 4.72 5.14
NG+Un 2.5 1.91 5.99 3.6



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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