Lugo Vs Ponferradina

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Lugo and Ponferradina for Segunda Division (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.5 2.95 3.02 2.52 1.5
Estim 2.36 3.53 3.41 2.42 1.71
Value % 2.37 -5.57 -3.79 1.64 -8.19



Basic Data and latest results


Lugo basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 5 4 1 5
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 1 2
At Home 3 3 1 57 5 4 1 6




Lugo latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
03 Nov Mirandes A 2 3 L O Gg
30 Oct Sp Gijon H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Malaga A 0 1 L U Ng
20 Oct Las Palmas H 2 0 W U Ng
17 Oct Burgos A 1 1 D U Gg
09 Oct Girona H 1 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Leganes A 1 1 D U Gg
26 Sep Zaragoza H 1 1 D U Gg



Ponferradina basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 4 1 39 5 4 1 5
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 1 2
At Away 2 2 2 44 5 4 1 5




Ponferradina latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Nov Huesca H 1 1 D U Gg
30 Oct Cartagena A 1 0 W U Ng
24 Oct Oviedo H 1 2 L O Gg
21 Oct Zaragoza A 1 1 D U Gg
17 Oct Fuenlabrada H 0 0 D U Ng
10 Oct Sociedad B A 1 1 D U Gg
01 Oct Valladolid H 2 2 D O Gg
25 Sep Las Palmas A 1 2 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Lugo is -0.074 and for the Ponferradina is 0.009.
  • The home dynamic for the Lugo is 0.263 and the dynamic as a guest for the Ponferradina is 0.08.
  • The offensive ability for the Lugo is 0.573 and for the Ponferradina is 0.585.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Lugo is -0.304 and for the Ponferradina is -0.067.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Lugo 27% 35% 24% 13%
Ponferradina 35% 37% 19% 8%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Lugo to score 1.09 goals and Ponferradina to score 0.96 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.06 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.13 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Lugo to score 1.24 goals and Ponferradina to score 1.01 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.25 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.23 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.53 0-1 3.14
1 4.48 2-3 2.02
2 3.73 4+ 5.41
3 4.39 Ov 1.5 1.47
4 7.87 Un 1.5 3.14
5 21.28 Ov 2.5 2.42
6+ 90.91 Un 2.5 1.71
Gg 2.11 Ov 3.5 5.41
NoG 1.9 Un 3.5 1.23


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.56 3.35 3.21
2-3 goals 2.22 3.82 3.47
4+ goals 2.47 3.14 3.63
Ov 1.5 2.29 3.6 3.51
Un 1.5 2.56 3.35 3.21
Ov 2.5 1.95 7 2.91
Un 2.5 2.79 2.6 3.88
Ov 3.5 2.47 3.14 3.63
Un 3.5 2.35 3.62 3.36
Goal-Goal 2.87 2.5 3.97
No Goal 2.05 5.54 3.02
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.08 5.81 2.88
NG+Un 2.5 2.17 5.54 3.02



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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