Luton Vs Stoke

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Luton and Stoke for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.42 3.21 3.07 2.19 1.7
Estim 2.22 3.79 3.51 2.03 1.97
Value % 3.72 -4.77 -4.08 3.6 -8.06



Basic Data and latest results


Luton basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 4 3 2 4
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 1 2
At Home 4 3 1 62 5 3 5 3




Luton latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Nov Middlesbrough H 3 1 W O Gg
30 Oct Preston A 0 2 L U Ng
23 Oct Hull H 1 0 W U Ng
19 Oct Derby A 2 2 D O Gg
16 Oct Millwall A 2 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Huddersfield H 0 0 D U Ng
29 Sep Coventry H 5 0 W O Ng
25 Sep Bournemouth A 1 2 L O Gg



Stoke basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 5 4 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 2 2 1
At Away 2 2 4 33 6 6 5 3




Stoke latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
03 Nov Blackpool A 1 0 W U Ng
30 Oct Cardiff H 3 3 D O Gg
23 Oct Millwall A 1 2 L O Gg
19 Oct Bournemouth H 0 1 L U Ng
16 Oct Sheffield United A 1 2 L O Gg
01 Oct West Brom H 1 0 W U Ng
28 Sep Preston A 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Hull H 2 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Luton is 0.333 and for the Stoke is -0.181.
  • The home dynamic for the Luton is 0.018 and the dynamic as a guest for the Stoke is -0.451.
  • The offensive ability for the Luton is 0.209 and for the Stoke is 0.554.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Luton is 0.07 and for the Stoke is -0.067.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Luton 22% 32% 28% 18%
Stoke 33% 33% 24% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Luton to score 1.24 goals and Stoke to score 1.05 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.3 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.19 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Luton to score 1.41 goals and Stoke to score 1.11 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.52 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.3 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 13.51 0-1 3.92
1 5.52 2-3 2
2 3.97 4+ 4.08
3 4.02 Ov 1.5 1.34
4 6.37 Un 1.5 3.92
5 14.29 Ov 2.5 2.02
6+ 55.56 Un 2.5 1.97
Gg 1.92 Ov 3.5 4.08
NoG 2.08 Un 3.5 1.32


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.36 3.45 3.49
2-3 goals 2.06 4.68 3.32
4+ goals 2.45 2.92 4.02
Ov 1.5 2.17 3.91 3.52
Un 1.5 2.36 3.45 3.49
Ov 2.5 1.98 5.88 3.09
Un 2.5 2.52 2.8 4.06
Ov 3.5 2.45 2.92 4.02
Un 3.5 2.15 4.18 3.38
Goal-Goal 2.72 2.72 3.77
No Goal 1.85 6.5 3.27
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.16 4.92 2.99
NG+Un 2.5 1.99 6.5 3.2



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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