Mallorca Vs Elche

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Mallorca and Elche for La Liga (Spain).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.08 3.14 4.24 2.57 1.52
Estim 1.81 4.17 4.78 1.92 2.09
Value % 7.17 -7.87 -2.66 13.17 -17.94



Basic Data and latest results


Mallorca basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 3 2 33 5 5 2 4
Last 3 0 3 0 33 3 3 1 2
At Home 2 3 1 50 5 3 1 5




Mallorca latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Cadiz A 1 1 D U Gg
27 Oct Sevilla H 1 1 D U Gg
23 Oct Valencia A 2 2 D O Gg
16 Oct Sociedad A 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct Levante H 1 0 W U Ng
26 Sep Osasuna H 2 3 L O Gg
22 Sep Real Madrid A 1 6 L O Gg
19 Sep Villarreal H 0 0 D U Ng



Elche basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 4 5 3 3
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 2 1
At Away 1 0 5 17 3 5 2 4




Elche latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Real Madrid H 1 2 L O Gg
26 Oct Alaves A 0 1 L U Ng
23 Oct Espanol H 2 2 D O Gg
17 Oct Vallecano A 1 2 L O Gg
03 Oct Celta H 1 0 W U Ng
26 Sep Sociedad A 0 1 L U Ng
22 Sep Villarreal A 1 4 L O Gg
18 Sep Levante H 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Mallorca is -0.148 and for the Elche is -0.629.
  • The home dynamic for the Mallorca is 0.053 and the dynamic as a guest for the Elche is -0.747.
  • The offensive ability for the Mallorca is 0.609 and for the Elche is 0.098.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Mallorca is -0.652 and for the Elche is -0.585.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Mallorca 19% 28% 26% 27%
Elche 38% 37% 17% 9%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Mallorca to score 1.27 goals and Elche to score 0.79 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.06 goals in the game and the home team Mallorca to win by 0.48 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Mallorca to score 1.62 goals and Elche to score 0.96 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and the home team Mallorca to win by 0.66 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 14.08 0-1 4.08
1 5.75 2-3 2.02
2 4.31 4+ 3.85
3 3.82 Ov 1.5 1.33
4 5.95 Un 1.5 4.08
5 14.71 Ov 2.5 1.92
6+ 41.67 Un 2.5 2.1
Gg 1.99 Ov 3.5 3.85
NoG 2.02 Un 3.5 1.35


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.33 3.45 3.55
2-3 goals 1.65 4.89 5.31
4+ goals 1.79 3.82 5.53
Ov 1.5 1.69 4.46 5.39
Un 1.5 2.33 3.45 3.55
Ov 2.5 1.51 7.68 4.79
Un 2.5 2.33 2.77 4.77
Ov 3.5 1.79 3.82 5.53
Un 3.5 1.82 4.3 4.56
Goal-Goal 2.09 2.98 5.41
No Goal 1.61 6.99 4.28
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.67 5.91 4.32
NG+Un 2.5 1.83 6.99 3.76



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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