Marseille Vs Metz

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Marseille and Metz for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.41 4.88 7.51 1.69 2.25
Estim 1.52 4.74 7.52 2.11 1.9
Value % -5.13 0.61 -0.02 -11.78 8.19



Basic Data and latest results


Marseille basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 4 4 2 4
Last 3 1 2 0 56 2 1 0 3
At Home 3 2 1 61 5 4 4 2




Marseille latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Clermont A 1 0 W U Ng
27 Oct Nice A 1 1 D U Gg
24 Oct Paris SG H 0 0 D U Ng
17 Oct Lorient H 4 1 W O Gg
03 Oct Lille A 0 2 L U Ng
26 Sep Lens H 2 3 L O Gg
22 Sep Angers A 0 0 D U Ng
19 Sep Rennes H 2 0 W U Ng



Metz basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 1 4 22 5 6 5 1
Last 3 0 1 2 11 2 3 2 1
At Away 1 1 4 22 4 6 5 1




Metz latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct St Etienne H 1 1 D U Gg
24 Oct Lens A 1 4 L O Gg
17 Oct Rennes H 0 3 L O Ng
03 Oct Angers A 2 3 L O Gg
26 Sep Brest A 2 1 W O Gg
22 Sep Paris SG H 1 2 L O Gg
17 Sep Strasbourg A 0 3 L O Ng
12 Sep Troyes H 0 2 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Marseille is 0.074 and for the Metz is -0.595.
  • The home dynamic for the Marseille is 0.237 and the dynamic as a guest for the Metz is -0.519.
  • The offensive ability for the Marseille is 0.209 and for the Metz is 0.513.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Marseille is -0.13 and for the Metz is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Marseille 18% 14% 42% 25%
Metz 56% 25% 14% 6%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Marseille to score 2.2 goals and Metz to score 0.64 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.84 goals in the game and the home team Marseille to win by 1.56 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Marseille to score 1.74 goals and Metz to score 0.69 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.43 goals in the game and the home team Marseille to win by 1.05 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 9.8 0-1 4.41
1 8 2-3 1.75
2 3.36 4+ 4.95
3 3.66 Ov 1.5 1.29
4 7.75 Un 1.5 4.41
5 16.95 Ov 2.5 2.11
6+ 71.43 Un 2.5 1.9
Gg 2.76 Ov 3.5 4.95
NoG 1.57 Un 3.5 1.25


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.84 2.23 5.04
2-3 goals 1.19 16.31 10.2
4+ goals 2.1 2.73 6.31
Ov 1.5 1.34 7.09 8.78
Un 1.5 2.84 2.23 5.04
Ov 2.5 1.4 6.42 7.66
Un 2.5 1.66 3.83 7.39
Ov 3.5 2.1 2.73 6.31
Un 3.5 1.42 5.82 7.9
Goal-Goal 1.8 3.32 6.96
No Goal 1.4 6.25 7.88
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.63 4.42 6.29
NG+Un 2.5 1.55 6.25 6.9



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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