Nantes Vs Strasbourg

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Nantes and Strasbourg for Ligue One (France).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.39 3.33 3.07 2.18 1.73
Estim 2.16 3.69 3.75 2.38 1.73
Value % 4.46 -2.93 -5.91 -3.85 0



Basic Data and latest results


Nantes basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 5 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 1 2
At Home 4 0 2 67 4 4 2 4




Nantes latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Montpellier A 0 2 L U Ng
23 Oct Clermont H 2 1 W O Gg
17 Oct Bordeaux A 1 1 D U Gg
03 Oct Troyes H 2 0 W U Ng
26 Sep Reims A 1 3 L O Gg
22 Sep Brest H 3 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Angers A 4 1 W O Gg
12 Sep Nice H 0 2 L U Ng



Strasbourg basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 1 2 56 5 4 3 3
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 2 1
At Away 1 1 3 27 4 4 2 3




Strasbourg latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Lorient H 4 0 W O Ng
24 Oct Rennes A 0 1 L U Ng
17 Oct St Etienne H 5 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Montpellier A 1 1 D U Gg
25 Sep Lille H 1 2 L O Gg
22 Sep Lens A 1 0 W U Ng
17 Sep Metz H 3 0 W O Ng
12 Sep Lyon A 1 3 L O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Nantes is 0.133 and for the Strasbourg is 0.19.
  • The home dynamic for the Nantes is 0.316 and the dynamic as a guest for the Strasbourg is -0.367.
  • The offensive ability for the Nantes is 0.518 and for the Strasbourg is 0.482.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Nantes is -0.626 and for the Strasbourg is -0.067.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Nantes 26% 31% 30% 13%
Strasbourg 38% 36% 16% 10%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nantes to score 1.26 goals and Strasbourg to score 1.06 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.32 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nantes to score 1.31 goals and Strasbourg to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and the home team Nantes to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 10.1 0-1 3.22
1 4.72 2-3 1.99
2 3.72 4+ 5.32
3 4.29 Ov 1.5 1.45
4 8 Un 1.5 3.22
5 20 Ov 2.5 2.38
6+ 76.92 Un 2.5 1.72
Gg 2.18 Ov 3.5 5.32
NoG 1.84 Un 3.5 1.23


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.61 3.14 3.34
2-3 goals 1.81 4.48 4.44
4+ goals 2.81 3.13 3.08
Ov 1.5 2.01 4.01 3.97
Un 1.5 2.61 3.14 3.34
Ov 2.5 1.85 7.02 3.14
Un 2.5 2.46 2.75 4.36
Ov 3.5 2.81 3.13 3.08
Un 3.5 2.05 3.85 3.95
Goal-Goal 2.59 2.66 4.2
No Goal 1.9 5.48 3.44
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.95 5.77 3.17
NG+Un 2.5 1.98 5.48 3.52



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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