Napoli Vs Verona

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Napoli and Verona for Serie A (Italy).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 1.39 4.88 8.05 1.6 2.38
Estim 1.79 4.31 4.78 2.46 1.69
Value % -16.08 2.71 8.5 -21.85 17.15



Basic Data and latest results


Napoli basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 5 1 0 89 5 1 2 4
Last 3 2 1 0 78 2 0 1 2
At Home 5 0 0 100 5 1 2 3




Napoli latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Salernitana A 1 0 W U Ng
28 Oct Bologna H 3 0 W O Ng
24 Oct Roma A 0 0 D U Ng
17 Oct Torino H 1 0 W U Ng
03 Oct Fiorentina A 2 1 W O Gg
26 Sep Cagliari H 2 0 W U Ng
23 Sep Sampdoria A 4 0 W O Ng
20 Sep Udinese A 4 0 W O Ng



Verona basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 2 1 61 6 5 5 1
Last 3 2 1 0 78 3 3 2 1
At Away 0 3 2 20 4 5 3 2




Verona latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Juventus H 2 1 W O Gg
27 Oct Udinese A 1 1 D U Gg
24 Oct Lazio H 4 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Milan A 2 3 L O Gg
03 Oct Spezia H 4 0 W O Ng
25 Sep Genoa A 3 3 D O Gg
22 Sep Salernitana A 2 2 D O Gg
19 Sep Roma H 3 2 W O Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Napoli is 0.83 and for the Verona is 0.405.
  • The home dynamic for the Napoli is 1 and the dynamic as a guest for the Verona is -0.367.
  • The offensive ability for the Napoli is 0.573 and for the Verona is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Napoli is 1 and for the Verona is -0.585.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Napoli 22% 36% 21% 20%
Verona 60% 9% 26% 5%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Napoli to score 2.33 goals and Verona to score 0.64 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.97 goals in the game and the home team Napoli to win by 1.69 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Napoli to score 1.39 goals and Verona to score 0.75 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.14 goals in the game and the home team Napoli to win by 0.64 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 7.46 0-1 2.68
1 4.18 2-3 2.15
2 4.57 4+ 6.17
3 4.07 Ov 1.5 1.59
4 10.99 Un 1.5 2.68
5 16.13 Ov 2.5 2.45
6+ 111.11 Un 2.5 1.69
Gg 3.23 Ov 3.5 6.17
NoG 1.45 Un 3.5 1.19


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.71 2.78 17.76
2-3 goals 1.73 13.68 2.87
4+ goals 2.28 2.53 6
Ov 1.5 1.84 6.4 3.32
Un 1.5 1.71 2.78 17.76
Ov 2.5 1.92 6.38 3.11
Un 2.5 1.72 3.52 7.49
Ov 3.5 2.28 2.53 6
Un 3.5 1.72 4.99 4.58
Goal-Goal 3.41 3.16 2.56
No Goal 1.48 5.15 7.75
G-G+Ov 2.5 3.03 4.31 2.28
NG+Un 2.5 1.62 5.15 7.06



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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