Nijmegen Vs Heerenveen

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Nijmegen and Heerenveen for Eredivisie (Holland).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.31 3.4 2.87 1.88 1.95
Estim 2.33 3.98 3.12 1.49 3.03
Value % -0.37 -4.29 -2.79 13.92 -18.28



Basic Data and latest results


Nijmegen basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 3 0 3 50 4 5 5 1
Last 3 2 0 1 67 2 2 2 1
At Home 2 1 2 47 2 2 2 3




Nijmegen latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Groningen H 3 0 W O Ng
24 Oct Twente A 2 1 W O Gg
17 Oct Vitesse H 0 1 L U Ng
02 Oct For Sittard A 3 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Feyenoord A 3 5 L O Gg
22 Sep Utrecht H 0 3 L O Ng
17 Sep Sparta Rotterdam A 1 1 D U Gg
12 Sep Willem II H 0 0 D U Ng



Heerenveen basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 0 5 17 5 5 4 2
Last 3 0 0 3 0 2 3 2 1
At Away 2 1 2 47 5 3 2 3




Heerenveen latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Vitesse H 1 2 L O Gg
23 Oct Utrecht A 1 2 L O Gg
16 Oct Ajax H 0 2 L U Ng
02 Oct Zwolle A 1 0 W U Ng
26 Sep Twente H 2 3 L O Gg
22 Sep Feyenoord A 1 3 L O Gg
18 Sep For Sittard H 1 0 W U Ng
12 Sep Groningen A 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Nijmegen is 0.089 and for the Heerenveen is -0.802.
  • The home dynamic for the Nijmegen is -0.158 and the dynamic as a guest for the Heerenveen is 0.004.
  • The offensive ability for the Nijmegen is 0.245 and for the Heerenveen is 0.513.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Nijmegen is -0.539 and for the Heerenveen is -0.554.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Nijmegen 18% 26% 27% 30%
Heerenveen 22% 29% 27% 22%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Nijmegen to score 1.39 goals and Heerenveen to score 1.19 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.58 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Nijmegen to score 1.69 goals and Heerenveen to score 1.48 goals.
So, we expect a total of 3.17 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.21 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 25.64 0-1 6.8
1 9.26 2-3 2.3
2 5.49 4+ 2.39
3 3.97 Ov 1.5 1.17
4 4.65 Un 1.5 6.8
5 7.25 Ov 2.5 1.49
6+ 15.38 Un 2.5 3.04
Gg 1.56 Ov 3.5 2.39
NoG 2.79 Un 3.5 1.72


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 2.58 3.77 2.88
2-3 goals 2.12 5.79 2.82
4+ goals 2.5 3.05 3.67
Ov 1.5 2.29 4.02 3.18
Un 1.5 2.58 3.77 2.88
Ov 2.5 2.15 4.89 3.03
Un 2.5 2.81 2.89 3.36
Ov 3.5 2.5 3.05 3.67
Un 3.5 2.22 5.1 2.83
Goal-Goal 2.61 3.02 3.5
No Goal 1.95 9.21 2.64
G-G+Ov 2.5 2.31 4.12 3.09
NG+Un 2.5 2.17 9.21 2.59



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *