OFI Crete Vs Atromitos

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between OFI Crete and Atromitos for Super League (Greece).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.08 3.29 3.49 2.25 1.63
Estim 2.27 3.79 3.39 2.26 1.79
Value % -4.02 -4.01 0.85 -0.2 -5.48



Basic Data and latest results


OFI Crete basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 1 4 1 39 3 3 2 4
Last 3 1 2 0 56 1 1 1 2
At Home 0 3 1 25 2 2 2 2




OFI Crete latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Panathinaikos A 0 0 D U Ng
24 Oct Lamia H 0 0 D U Ng
17 Oct Panetolikos A 2 1 W O Gg
03 Oct PAOK H 1 3 L O Gg
27 Sep Giannina A 1 1 D U Gg
22 Sep Asteras Tripolis H 0 0 D U Ng
19 Sep AEK H 3 3 D O Gg
13 Sep Aris A 0 0 D U Ng



Atromitos basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 2 4 11 3 6 4 2
Last 3 0 1 2 11 1 3 2 1
At Away 0 2 2 17 1 3 3 1




Atromitos latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct Lamia A 2 2 D O Gg
23 Oct Ionikos H 0 2 L U Ng
17 Oct AEK A 0 3 L O Ng
03 Oct Giannina H 1 1 D U Gg
27 Sep Aris H 1 3 L O Gg
23 Sep Volos NFC A 0 3 L O Ng
19 Sep Panetolikos H 1 2 L O Gg
12 Sep Olympiakos A 0 0 D U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the OFI Crete is 0.015 and for the Atromitos is -0.759.
  • The home dynamic for the OFI Crete is -0.421 and the dynamic as a guest for the Atromitos is -0.468.
  • The offensive ability for the OFI Crete is -0.273 and for the Atromitos is -0.378.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the OFI Crete is 0.217 and for the Atromitos is -1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
OFI Crete 37% 19% 20% 24%
Atromitos 38% 33% 22% 6%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) OFI Crete to score 1.32 goals and Atromitos to score 0.91 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.23 goals in the game and the home team OFI Crete to win by 0.41 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) OFI Crete to score 1.31 goals and Atromitos to score 0.97 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.28 goals in the game and the home team OFI Crete to win by 0.34 goals margin on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 7.09 0-1 2.97
1 5.1 2-3 2.24
2 4.52 4+ 4.61
3 4.44 Ov 1.5 1.51
4 7.35 Un 1.5 2.97
5 15.38 Ov 2.5 2.26
6+ 62.5 Un 2.5 1.79
Gg 2.56 Ov 3.5 4.61
NoG 1.64 Un 3.5 1.28


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 4.62 2.39 2.74
2-3 goals 1.89 6.97 3.05
4+ goals 1.64 3.62 8.68
Ov 1.5 1.8 5.35 3.88
Un 1.5 4.62 2.39 2.74
Ov 2.5 1.52 7.37 4.86
Un 2.5 3.72 2.72 2.75
Ov 3.5 1.64 3.62 8.68
Un 3.5 2.53 3.82 2.91
Goal-Goal 1.96 3.15 5.82
No Goal 2.52 4.33 2.69
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.64 5.43 4.87
NG+Un 2.5 3.29 4.33 2.43



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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