Pacos Ferreira Vs Sp Lisbon

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Pacos Ferreira and Sp Lisbon for Primeira Liga (Portugal).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 6.78 3.88 1.53 2.07 1.79
Estim 2.3 3.64 3.44 1.94 2.07
Value % 28.73 1.7 -36.29 3.24 -7.56



Basic Data and latest results


Pacos Ferreira basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 0 5 1 28 4 4 2 4
Last 3 0 2 1 22 2 2 1 2
At Home 1 3 1 40 3 2 2 3




Pacos Ferreira latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
01 Nov Moreirense A 1 1 D U Gg
24 Oct Arouca H 0 0 D U Ng
02 Oct Porto A 1 2 L O Gg
27 Sep Belenenses H 2 2 D O Gg
19 Sep Vizela A 1 1 D U Gg
11 Sep Sp Braga H 0 0 D U Ng
29 Aug Portimonense A 1 0 W U Ng
23 Aug Estoril H 1 3 L O Gg



Sp Lisbon basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 5 1 0 89 6 2 1 5
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 1 1 2
At Away 3 1 0 83 4 3 2 2




Sp Lisbon latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Guimaraes H 1 0 W U Ng
23 Oct Moreirense H 1 0 W U Ng
02 Oct Arouca A 2 1 W O Gg
24 Sep Maritimo H 1 0 W U Ng
19 Sep Estoril A 1 0 W U Ng
11 Sep Porto H 1 1 D U Gg
28 Aug Famalicao A 1 1 D U Gg
21 Aug Belenenses H 2 0 W U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.17 and for the Sp Lisbon is 1.
  • The home dynamic for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.158 and the dynamic as a guest for the Sp Lisbon is 0.857.
  • The offensive ability for the Pacos Ferreira is 0.209 and for the Sp Lisbon is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Pacos Ferreira is -0.243 and for the Sp Lisbon is 0.938.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Pacos Ferreira 22% 32% 24% 21%
Sp Lisbon 23% 54% 3% 20%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 0.63 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.77 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.4 goals in the game and the guest team Sp Lisbon to win by 1.14 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Pacos Ferreira to score 1.44 goals and Sp Lisbon to score 1.19 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.63 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.25 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 19.61 0-1 4.08
1 5.15 2-3 2.11
2 4.18 4+ 3.57
3 4.26 Ov 1.5 1.33
4 5.43 Un 1.5 4.08
5 18.18 Ov 2.5 1.94
6+ 24.39 Un 2.5 2.07
Gg 1.68 Ov 3.5 3.57
NoG 2.49 Un 3.5 1.39


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 3.22 4.8 2.08
2-3 goals 1.99 2.72 7.65
4+ goals 2.33 5.71 2.52
Ov 1.5 2.11 3.38 4.36
Un 1.5 3.22 4.8 2.08
Ov 2.5 1.71 10.51 3.12
Un 2.5 3.64 2.15 3.84
Ov 3.5 2.33 5.71 2.52
Un 3.5 2.29 3.2 3.99
Goal-Goal 2.37 2.68 4.89
No Goal 2.21 7.88 2.38
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.68 8.63 3.47
NG+Un 2.5 2.33 7.88 2.46



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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