Panathinaikos Vs PAOK

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Panathinaikos and PAOK for Super League (Greece).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 2.85 3.25 2.38 2.12 1.74
Estim 2.44 3.31 3.47 2.23 1.81
Value % 5.9 -0.56 -13.2 -2.33 -2.22



Basic Data and latest results


Panathinaikos basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 2 2 44 3 4 3 3
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 2 2 1
At Home 3 1 0 83 3 2 3 1




Panathinaikos latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
31 Oct OFI Crete H 0 0 D U Ng
23 Oct Asteras Tripolis A 1 2 L O Gg
16 Oct Ionikos H 4 1 W O Gg
03 Oct Olympiakos A 0 0 D U Ng
26 Sep Volos NFC H 5 1 W O Gg
22 Sep Aris A 0 1 L U Ng
18 Sep Giannina A 0 1 L U Ng
11 Sep Apollon H 4 0 W O Ng



PAOK basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 4 1 1 72 6 5 5 1
Last 3 1 1 1 44 3 3 3 0
At Away 3 0 1 75 4 3 3 1




PAOK latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
30 Oct Apollon H 4 1 W O Gg
24 Oct Olympiakos A 1 2 L O Gg
17 Oct Volos NFC H 4 4 D O Gg
03 Oct OFI Crete A 3 1 W O Gg
26 Sep AEK H 2 0 W U Ng
22 Sep Panetolikos A 2 1 W O Gg
19 Sep Asteras Tripolis A 1 0 W U Ng
12 Sep Giannina H 0 1 L U Ng






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Panathinaikos is 0 and for the PAOK is 0.526.
  • The home dynamic for the Panathinaikos is 0.649 and the dynamic as a guest for the PAOK is 0.519.
  • The offensive ability for the Panathinaikos is -0.209 and for the PAOK is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Panathinaikos is -0.157 and for the PAOK is -0.585.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Panathinaikos 10% 59% 24% 7%
PAOK 32% 33% 31% 4%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Panathinaikos to score 1.1 goals and PAOK to score 1.25 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.35 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is -0.15 on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Panathinaikos to score 1.28 goals and PAOK to score 1.08 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.36 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0.2 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 32.26 0-1 3.98
1 4.55 2-3 1.7
2 3.32 4+ 6.25
3 3.47 Ov 1.5 1.34
4 8.06 Un 1.5 3.98
5 30.3 Ov 2.5 2.23
6+ 333.33 Un 2.5 1.81
Gg 1.63 Ov 3.5 6.25
NoG 2.6 Un 3.5 1.19


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 1.34 8.1 7.84
2-3 goals 3.31 3.05 2.7
4+ goals 3.56 2.05 4.32
Ov 1.5 3.36 2.76 2.94
Un 1.5 1.34 8.1 7.84
Ov 2.5 3.07 5.74 2
Un 2.5 2.08 2.46 8.76
Ov 3.5 3.56 2.05 4.32
Un 3.5 2.3 3.75 3.36
Goal-Goal 4.96 2.27 2.8
No Goal 1.34 12.42 5.75
G-G+Ov 2.5 3.4 5.41 1.92
NG+Un 2.5 1.35 12.42 5.7



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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