Peterboro Vs Fulham

Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions

In this article I will analyze the game between Peterboro and Fulham for Championship (England).
The average bookmakers odds for this game and our odds based on expected goals equations calculation are :

Team Home Draw Away Over Under
Book 6.37 4.4 1.49 1.66 2.26
Estim 3.39 3.23 2.53 2.26 1.79
Value % 13.8 8.23 -27.59 -15.99 11.62



Basic Data and latest results


Peterboro basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 2 1 3 39 4 6 4 2
Last 3 1 1 1 44 2 3 2 1
At Home 3 3 2 50 6 6 5 3




Peterboro latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
02 Nov Huddersfield H 1 1 D U Gg
30 Oct Swansea A 0 3 L O Ng
23 Oct QPR H 2 1 W O Gg
20 Oct Hull A 2 1 W O Gg
16 Oct Middlesbrough A 0 2 L U Ng
02 Oct Bristol City H 2 3 L O Gg
29 Sep Bournemouth H 0 0 D U Ng
24 Sep Coventry A 0 3 L O Ng



Fulham basic data

Gms Ws Ds Ls Pt% Sc Con Ov Un
Last 6 5 0 1 83 6 2 5 1
Last 3 3 0 0 100 3 0 3 0
At Away 5 1 2 67 7 6 6 2




Fulham latest results

Date Versus At Sc Con Res OU Gg
03 Nov Blackburn A 7 0 W O Ng
30 Oct West Brom H 3 0 W O Ng
24 Oct Nott’m Forest A 4 0 W O Ng
20 Oct Cardiff H 2 0 W U Ng
16 Oct QPR H 4 1 W O Gg
02 Oct Coventry A 1 4 L O Gg
29 Sep Swansea H 3 1 W O Gg
25 Sep Bristol City A 1 1 D U Gg






Desicive betting factors


  • The form score for the Peterboro is -0.133 and for the Fulham is 0.836.
  • The home dynamic for the Peterboro is -0.184 and the dynamic as a guest for the Fulham is 0.316.
  • The offensive ability for the Peterboro is 0.182 and for the Fulham is 1.
  • Finally, the defensive ability for the Peterboro is -1 and for the Fulham is 1.





Optimal equations estimations


Expected game result


The following table presents for probability of each team to score exactly 0-1-2 or 3+ goals.



Team No-G 1 gl 2 gls 3+ gls
Peterboro 49% 19% 4% 27%
Fulham 27% 61% -12% 24%



According to odds offered, the bookies expect (on average) Peterboro to score 0.74 goals and Fulham to score 2.13 goals.
So, they expect a total of 2.87 goals in the game and the guest team Fulham to win by 1.39 goals margin on average.
According to our calculations, we expect (on average) Peterboro to score 1.09 goals and Fulham to score 1.09 goals.
So, we expect a total of 2.18 goals in the game and both teams to straggle for victory in an very competitive match, expected goals difference is 0 on average.


Expected total goals number


The following table presents the “fair” odds for various goals scenarios.


Goals Odds Goals Odds
0 7.52 0-1 2.06
1 2.83 2-3 3.76
2 13.89 4+ 4.03
3 5.15 Ov 1.5 1.95
4 4.88 Un 1.5 2.06
5 -47.62 Ov 2.5 2.26
6+ 15.62 Un 2.5 1.79
Gg 2.7 Ov 3.5 4.03
NoG 1.59 Un 3.5 1.33


Various goals scenarios


The following table presents the “fair” odds for the game result in various goals scenarios. For example, if you believe that both teams will score, or that the game will have less than 3 goals you can find if a specific result is a value bet.


If game ends with -1- -X- -2-
0-1 goals 9.35 3.65 1.61
2-3 goals 2.4 2.25 7.19
4+ goals 1.88 4.2 4.35
Ov 1.5 2.12 2.9 5.47
Un 1.5 9.35 3.65 1.61
Ov 2.5 1.91 7.49 2.91
Un 2.5 8.72 2.22 2.3
Ov 3.5 1.88 4.2 4.35
Un 3.5 4.61 3 2.22
Goal-Goal 2.33 2.09 10.88
No Goal 4.63 4.74 1.75
G-G+Ov 2.5 1.58 4.27 7.41
NG+Un 2.5 6.88 4.74 1.81



Basic Data

Lineups

Predictions










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